Hostile season dampens England grain output
As this year’s winter and spring crop harvest finally draws to a close across England, initial production estimates suggest the country’s farmers have suffered their second-worst harvest in recent years, after unseasonably wet, cold and windy weather restricted planting and hit production of the key crops.
The United Kingdom experienced its second-wettest August-February period since records began in 1837, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. This made it extremely difficult to conduct fieldwork in the autumn, dramatically reducing the winter-crop seeding program. Despite being planted later than normal, the spring crops did perform much better than winter crops. Data from the UK Meteorological Office emphasises how the favourable weather early in the 2024 harvest gave way to unsettled weather and harvest delays toward the end of the campaign.
In England, wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape are the principal grain crops grown each year, with the total area 2.64 million hectares (Mha) planted in autumn 2023 and spring 2024. This is 7.4 percent lower than the 2.86Mha planted last season and 14.9pc below the 10-year average of 3.04Mha.
By commodity, wheat, winter barley, and oilseed rape areas were down this season, but the oats and spring barley areas increased. Wheat commands the most significant proportion of the cropping area each year, with the final planted area of 1.4Mha representing 53pc of the total area planted to the four major crops against the 10-year average of 53.6pc. The area fell 11.2pc from 1.58Mha in the previous season and was 16.2pc lower than the 10-year average of 1.63Mha.
A significant increase in the spring barley area, due to far more favourable planting conditions and ample fallow land, more than compensated for the lower winter barley area. Total barley area of 849,000ha was 6.2pc higher than previous season, and 3.8pc higher than the average of the past 10 seasons of 817,000ha.
The area planted to oats increased steadily from around 63,000ha in 1999 to peak at almost 170,000ha in 2020 before plateauing this decade. The area planted for the 2024-25 harvest was 148,000ha, 10.8pc higher than the previous year and 12.2 percentage points higher than the 10-year average of 130,000ha.
Oilseed rape area peaked in 2012 at 713,000ha, and has been on a downward trajectory ever since. The 245,000ha seeded last autumn was 28.5pc lower than previous, 27.6pc lower than the five-year average, and 89pc lower than the 10-year average.
Initial production estimates released by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on October 10 forecast total wheat production at 9.99 million tonnes (Mt), only the second sub-10Mt crop this century. The forecast puts the harvest 21.7pc lower than 12.76Mt previous year and 33.9pc lower than the 10-year average of 13.38Mt. However, it is 13.2pc higher than the 8.67Mt disaster in 2020. An 11.8pc decrease in the average yield from 8.1t/ha to 7.1t/ha was a significant contributor to the production decline.
Protein content of the wheat has generally been lower than usual across milling samples, averaging in the 11.5 to 12pc range. According to AHDB, blending higher-protein imports with the lower-protein UK samples will make the crop manageable. The testweight of the milling samples has been encouraging, averaging in the 76-78kg per hectolitre range, while moisture content has been high in some cases, primarily in the later-harvested crops. There are no major issues on a falling number basis, but ergot has reportedly been especially prevalent this season.
According to the UK Flour Millers, wheat flour is an essential part of the UK diet, being an ingredient in about one-third of all grocery products. Wheat flour provides around 20pc of the energy and protein consumed in the UK and makes a significant contribution to vitamin and mineral intake. The association reported that about 12 million loaves of bread, two million pizzas and 10 million cakes and biscuits are made in the UK every day.
Total barley production is estimated at 4.95Mt, 2.7pc higher than the previous harvest of 4.82Mt but 2.8pc lower than the ten-year average of 5.09Mt. The department is calling the winter barley crop down 26.5pc at 2.02Mt, but the spring barley crop was the biggest since 2020 at 2.93Mt, 41.1pc higher than the 2023 harvest. The average spring barley yield was 10.1pc higher than 2023 at 5.6t/ha, while the average yield for the winter barley harvest was 11.7pc lower at 6.2t/ha.
The quality of the winter malting barley is reportedly good, although some regions have had testweight and retention issues. According to AHDB’s latest harvest report, nitrogen levels have averaged around 1.5pc, with a range of 1.3 to 1.6pc. This is low for winter malting barley, where maltsters typically look for grain nitrogen of up to 1.75pc. It could prove a challenge for exports, with continental maltsters generally requiring a higher nitrogen level of up to 1.85pc. The spring malting barley samples are reported to be suffering a similar predicament.
The initial oat production outlook has this year’s crop pencilled in at 773,000t, 20.2pc higher than 2023-24, but only 8.7pc higher than the average for the 10 years from 2014 to 2023. The average yield came in at 5.2t/ha, higher than last year’s average of 4.8t/ha, but lower than the 10-year average of 5.5t/ha.
While the quality of England’s oilseed rape harvest has been good this season, total production plummeted 32.9pc. The initial output estimated is 687,000t, compared to 1.02Mt last year and the 10-year average of 1.64Mt. The fall was primarily driven by the aforementioned decrease in planted area, but the average yield across the country also fell 7.9pc from 3t/ha to 2.8t/ha. The average oil content is reported to be more than 45pc, with very few samples under 44pc. While one of the drivers of lower yield has reportedly been smaller seed size, it does not appear to have adversely impacted oil content.
As the 2024 harvest wound down, farmer focus quickly turned to the next winter-crop seeding program. This not only means taking advantage of better sowing conditions by planting early but also weighing up the production risks posed by barley yellow dwarf virus, take-all, grass weeds and increased disease pressure when finalising crop rotation options. Early reports suggest that plantings have returned to the more normal levels recorded in the autumn of 2022, a direct consequence of the favourable seeding conditions through September and early October.
For almost 30 years of expertise in the agri markets, UkrAgroConsult has accumulated an extensive database, which became the basis of the platform AgriSupp.
It is a multi-functional online platform with market intelligence for grains and oilseeds that enables to get access to daily operational information on the Black Sea & Danube markets, analytical reports, historical data.
You are welcome to get a 7-day free demo access!!!
Got additional questions?
We will be happy to assist!
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon