Higher grain harvest in the EU shifts market balance

Improved grain production in the European Union in the MY 2025/26  is expected to support an export recovery after weak results last season. According to a report by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), favorable summer weather conditions in northern and western EU regions significantly boosted crop performance.

Total EU grain production is estimated at 288.1 million tonnes, well above both the summer forecast of 279.2 million tonnes and the 257.7 million tonnes harvested in 2024/25. Grain exports are projected to rise to 45.7 million tonnes, compared with 37 million tonnes in the previous season.

Larger domestic supplies are also expected to reduce the EU’s import needs. FAS estimates that grain imports will decline to 28 million tonnes in 2025/26, down from 30.6 million tonnes a year earlier, reflecting a more comfortable internal supply balance.

Feed grain consumption in 2025/26 is forecast at 161.9 million tonnes. Despite ongoing challenges related to animal diseases and increasing regulatory pressure, feed demand across the EU remains strong, according to the FAS.

Wheat is expected to account for a larger share of feed rations compared with last year. This shift is driven by a somewhat lower-than-expected EU corn crop and reduced corn availability from Ukraine. Corn production is estimated at 57.5 million tonnes, down from 59.5 million tonnes, as record-low planted areas in major producing countries offset expansion elsewhere in the bloc.

Meanwhile, the EU wheat crop in 2025/26 is projected to reach 144.6 million tonnes, significantly higher than both the 2024/25 result and the July estimate. FAS attributes this rebound to favorable weather throughout the growing season, with particularly strong production recoveries in France, Germany and Poland.

Tags: supply and demand balance, corn, export, EU, wheat, imports