Heat Dome Impacting Safrinha Corn in South-Central Brazil

Weather in Brazil has turned hotter and dryer with little rain in the forecast and temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s with very low relative humidity. A blocking high pressure is preventing any cold fronts from moving into central Brazil. The high pressures is expected to remain in place until about May 10th. Both the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) and NOAA feel that the dry season has started in Brazil.

The forecast is problematic for the safrinha corn in south-central Brazil that will need additional rain through the month of May. The forecast is calling for temperatures much above normal, which will dry things out very quickly. The major area of concern is Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) reported that 90% of the safrinha corn in the state was planted within the ideal planting window and that farmers in the state reduced their safrinha corn acreage by 10%. Most of the corn is filling grain and generally in good condition. Some of the earliest planted corn in western Mato Grosso will be ready for harvest in about two weeks. The cotton producers in western Mato Grosso were given permission to plant their soybeans two weeks earlier than normal and that allowed for an early safrinha corn planting.

The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) revised downward their estimate of the 2023/24 safrinha corn production for Parana. They are now estimating the crop at 13.5 million tons, which is down 8% compared to their initial estimate of 14.7 million tons. The safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 2.4 million hectares, which is up slightly from last year. They indicated that the corn estimate might decline further in future reports.

Deral is rating the safrinha corn at 10% poor, 21% average, and 69% good. As of earlier last week, the safrinha corn was 18% in vegetative development, 30% pollinating, 49% filling grain, and 3% maturing. Dry weather during March and the first half of April impacted the crop, but recent rains have benefited the crop.

 In their latest report, the Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Mato Grosso do Sul (Famasul) rated the safrinha corn in the state at 19.5% poor, 18.4% average, and 62% good. The lowest rated corn is in the southern part of the state where 10 to 30 days of dry weather impacted 450,000 of the 2,218,000 planted hectares of safrinha corn.

Farmers in the state reduced their safrinha corn acreage 5.8% and Famasul is estimating the average yield at 86.3 sacks per hectare (82.3 bu/ac), which is down 14% from last year. The total safrinha corn production is estimated at 11.4 million tons, down 19.2% from last year.

Tags: Brazil, estimate, Production, yield, acreage, safrinha corn, forecas