Heat and rain are destroying Russian fields and provoking inflation

Russian farmers are being hit by unpredictable weather for the second year in a row, threatening significant crop losses. Abnormal heat in the south and excessive rains in other regions are destroying crops of key crops – wheat, sugar beets, potatoes and carrots. “This is a real battle for the harvest, and we are losing again,” one agricultural analyst says with despair. According to experts, the 2025 harvest will be even worse than last year’s, which was already unsuccessful. The quality of the harvested products is also deteriorating, which could lead to an increase in prices for basic food products.

In June, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation estimated losses in the south of the country at 8% of the sown area of ​​basic crops due to adverse weather. The grain harvest forecast has already been adjusted to the level of 2024, but risks remain. Weather has become a key factor in accelerating inflation, because food products significantly affect prices. According to the chief economist of Alfa-Bank Natalia Orlova, the crop failure is one of the three main risks for the economy, along with fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and budget spending. The shortage of quality products is expected to push prices even higher.

By July 11, only 11 million tons of wheat had been threshed in Russia – 56% less than in the same period last year, the SovEkon center reported. The main reason is the slow pace of harvesting due to the heat in the southern regions, in particular in the Rostov region and Krasnodar Territory. Spring frosts and June drought reduced the yield to 3.4 tons per hectare compared to 4 tons a year earlier. In some areas, yields have fallen to critical levels, and the quality of the grain is deteriorating due to the heat, which may complicate its use for food needs.

SovEkon experts suggest that the gap from last year could be narrowed somewhat if the harvest in the central regions is better. However, abnormal July rains are already hampering the harvest in central Russia, reducing the quality of wheat and malting barley. “The rains are literally washing away our hopes, we have lost almost 20% of the grain in the harvested areas,” complains a farmer from the Voronezh region. In the Krasnodar region, an emergency regime has been introduced due to drought, while in the Novgorod region – due to waterlogging of the soil, which destroyed crops on hundreds of hectares.

These disappointing trends not only reduce the volume of the harvest, but also threaten food security. According to analysts, the deterioration in the quality of grain and the reduction in its quantity will inevitably lead to an increase in prices for bread, cereals and vegetables. In some regions, even local shortages are possible. If weather conditions do not improve, Russia will face serious economic challenges, and consumers will feel the consequences in the form of emptier wallets and higher prices in stores.

Tags: grain, drought, harvesting, crop forecast, Russia