Grain Mixed This Morning. Friday, November 22, 2024

March corn is up 2¢ this morning.

January soybeans are up 1¼¢.

March wheat contracts are mixed. CBOT wheat is down 2¼¢. KC wheat is down less than a penny. Minneapolis wheat is up 1¼¢.

This morning, USDA announced new soybean export sales. Unknown destinations are buying 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Speaking of exports, this morning Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, discussed the future of commodity trade under President Elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration:

“There’s been a great deal of speculation about the potential impact of President Trump’s promised tariffs. The assumption is that another round of U.S. tariffs will prompt counter-tariffs from some of our biggest trading partners, namely China and Europe, as well as Mexico, raising prices for everyone. That’s an easy argument to make, and it may prove to be true. But there is another scenario to consider.

“This isn’t the first round for these government leaders. This will be Trump’s second round of serving as a president using tariffs as a part of his policy. But it’s also the second time around for the leaders of most of the other countries involved as well. They know what to expect from Trump. As such, they’re likely to take a different strategy this time around. Furthermore, they’re generally in a weaker position for battling the United States in a trade war.

“China’s economy is dynamically weaker now than it was eight years ago, leaving [President Xi Jinping] in a much weaker position to fight U.S. tariffs. Europe’s economy is in a more vulnerable position as well, as the war in neighboring Ukraine continues to take its toll. This might put these leaders into a position of trying to negotiate a pre-emptive trade agreement to avoid the tariffs. We already hear talk within China of this being a possibility — that perhaps an agreement would be reached to purchase more U.S. corn and soybeans to ease tariffs on consumer goods headed this way. The United States is the most powerful consumer buyer in the world. China cannot afford to lose our business, and to some extent, neither can Europe or Mexico.”

February live cattle are up 33¢ this morning. January feeder cattle are up 30¢. February lean hogs are down 5¢.

January crude oil is up 62¢.

The U.S. Dollar Index December contract is up to 107.55.

“Grain traders are anxiously watching the U.S. dollar, since futures are flirting with multi-year highs,” said Bob Linneman, commodities broker with Kluis Commodity Advisors. “Traders feel grain exports will slow if the dollar goes much higher.”

December S&P 500 futures are up 5 points. December Dow futures are up 198 points.

Tags: soybeans, wheat, futures, live cattle, feeder cattle, lean hogs, corn