Good weather in the US and the harvest in Argentina and Australia increase pressure on the December wheat futures

Wheat quotations on world markets remain under pressure from the harvest in Australia and Argentina, where production forecasts are improving, as well as heavy snowfall in the U.S. Plains, which replenish moisture reserves and protect crops with a layer of snow up to 1.5 m.

ABARES Agency raised its forecast of wheat harvest in Australia in 2024/25 MY to 31.9 million tons, which would be in line with the USDA forecast and 23% higher than in 2023/24 MY.

According to the Ministry of agriculture of India, as of November 29, the country planted 20 million hectares of wheat, which is 6.6% more than last year. The increase in production will help to reduce prices, which reached a record level in the previous season.

Yesterday, the December wheat futures rose slightly:

• by 1% to 197.5 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+0.3% for the week),
• by 0.6% to 192.5 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4.3%),
• by 1% to 211.5 €/t or 221.75 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+1.3%).

At the same time, futures for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis fell by 2.3% to 205.8 $/t (-3.7%).

Wheat exports from the United States for the week decreased by 19% to 296,1 thousand tons, and in General in the season reached 10.98 million tons, which is 31.8% ahead of last year’s pace. High export rates increase pressure on quotations. In the second half of the season, exports from Ukraine and Russia will decline, but the market will be supported by supplies from Argentina and Australia.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), in 2024/25 MY Canada increased exports of soft wheat by 1% to 6.3 mln tonnes and durum wheat by 53% to 1.3 mln tonnes compared to the same period of the previous season.

Ukraine exported 9 mln tonnes of wheat in 2024/25 MY (as of December 2), compared to 5.925 mln tonnes in the same period last year, reports the State Customs Service.

Export demand prices for wheat with delivery to the Black Sea ports are as follows:

• food – 9700-10000 UAH/t or 209-212 USD/t,
• feed – 9400-9450 UAH/t or 202-204 USD/t.

For 5 months of the current season, Russia exported a record 25.3 million tons of wheat for this period, which is 1.7 million tons more than the corresponding figure of the previous season.

Tags: wheat, prices