Global wheat trade shake-up: What is next for Ukraine?

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Elizaveta Malyshko

Head of Market Research

As export quotas tighten, subsidies shift and new players contribute to global supplies growth; Ukraine must switch from bulk grain exports to value-added processing and open fresh markets.

In 2025 cereal harvest across is under way in Ukraine. However, wheat 2025/26 season started at a crawl. Volumes are tiny after a cool May–June delayed harvesting. Ukraine first-cut wheat averaged just 2.51 mt/ha versus 3.12 mt/ha y/y. Premium quality is being reported and farmers await a price rally delaying the sales.

Short-term, wheat price spike is believable, tight wheat and slow barley supply/sales have already lifted domestic bids.

Longer-term fundamentals cap regional wheat prices upside 

Supply and competition. Global wheat output is up 1 % y/y. The EU planted 14–15 % more y/y: France +27 %, Germany +17 %, Spain +20 %. Spain previously was one of the biggest importers of Ukrainian wheat.

russia’s early southern yields lag, but total wheat output is pegged at 82–85 M mt and could climb toward 90 M mt if occupied regions are added. With export duties cut to zero and even with higher recommended price, Moscow may flood markets.

Demand shifts. Top buyers of Ukrainian wheat (Spain, Egypt, Algeria, Indonesia, and Vietnam) will likely to reshape flows.

Spain and Indonesia will rely on local and EU supplies; Algeria remains fiercely contested by all Black Sea players and Canada; Egypt sees a russia vs. Ukraine deliveries; Vietnam prefers the highest global bidder.

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Tags: prices, France, wheat, harvesting, Germany, Ukraine, EU