Global vegetable oil prices under pressure: Malaysian palm oil stocks rise
The main factors behind the price drop:
- Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose 6.65% to 1.99 million tonnes at the end of May, the highest level since September 2024.
- Palm oil production in Malaysia in May: +5.05% m/m (up to 1.77 million tonnes ).
- Exports for May: +25.6% (to 1.39 million tons ), but this was not enough to compensate for the increase in production.
Prices and quotes
| Product | Exchange/Place | Price | Week | Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm oil (August) | Bursa Malaysia | 3864 MYR/t (~913 $/t) | -1.8% | +0.5% |
| Soybean oil (July) | Chicago CBOT | $1053/t | +2.1% | -4.6% |
| Sunflower oil (India) | CIF Mumbai | $1200/t | 0% | 0% |
| Sunflower oil (Ukraine) | Black Sea ports | $1100/t | -1% | 0% |
| Rapeseed oil (new harvest) | Expected from July | — | — | — |
Demand and imports in India (May 2025)
| Type of oil | Import growth m/m |
|---|---|
| Palm | +87% |
| Soybean | +10% |
| Sunflower | +2% |
Key macro factors
- India reduced import duties on crude oil by 10%, which stimulated imports of cheap palm oil.
- Palm oil is traded at a discount of $100–150/t to soybean and sunflower oil, making it the most attractive to buyers.
- Oil World Forecast:
- Indonesia will increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025 (+1 million tons year-on-year).
- Production will increase to 47.8 million tons .
USA: Impact of Biofuels
- Investors disappointed by smaller-than-expected EPA biofuel quota increase :
- 2026: 4.65 billion gallons
- Alliance proposal: 5.25 billion gallons
- Fact 2025: 3.35 billion
This led to a drop in speculative interest in soybean oil , despite positive trade signals with China.
Situation in Russia
- In the first 5 months of 2025, exports of sunflower oil from the Russian Federation decreased by 25% to 1.87 million tons , which confirms weak demand even for the cheapest product on the market.
Expectations for June-July 2025:
- The market will remain under strong pressure due to high inventories and the start of deliveries of new crop rapeseed oil .
- Palm oil is a key factor in the pressure on other types of vegetable oils.
For almost 30 years of expertise in the agri markets, UkrAgroConsult has accumulated an extensive database, which became the basis of the platform AgriSupp.
It is a multi-functional online platform with market intelligence for grains and oilseeds that enables to get access to daily operational information on the Black Sea & Danube markets, analytical reports, historical data.
You are welcome to get a 7-day free demo access!!!
Read also
Early Rate expires this week – catch up with BLACK SEA OIL TRADE-2025!
China’s wheat procurement off to good start with over 17m tonnes purchased
ADM causes panic in US soybean market ahead of new biofuel rules
A new market research by UkrAgroConsult opens up prospects for agricultural export...
Ukraine may introduce a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans
Got additional questions?
We will be happy to assist!
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon