Global soybean processing volumes in MY 2025/26 exceed experts’ expectations

According to Oil World (Germany), global soybean crushing volumes have exceeded expectations in recent months, with a total of 370.6 million tonnes of the oilseed expected to be crushed in the 2025/26 season, 12.5 million tonnes more than in the previous marketing year.

Over the past three years, the increase in soybean crushing is estimated at 55 million tonnes, primarily due to China, the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. In particular, in the United States, soybean crushing volumes this season could exceed 71 million tonnes, a new record and significantly higher than the 66.5 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season. The oilseed harvest in 2025/26 is forecast at 115.99 million tonnes. In Brazil, soybean crushing also exceeded previous expectations and could reach a new high of 61.4 million tonnes in 2026. Increased soybean crushing was also recorded in Pakistan, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Paraguay, and Egypt.

Global soybean exports accelerated in March and are likely to remain above last year’s levels in the coming months. Brazilian soybeans are expected to increase their market share due to price discounts compared to U.S.-origin soybeans, with Brazil expected to ship 116.6 million tonnes of soybeans in 2026, compared to 108.2 million tonnes in 2025. However, doubts remain about the potential of the new crop due to slower harvesting and deteriorating oilseed quality, with the current forecast standing at 179.0 million tonnes (+7 million tonnes annually).

Global soybean stocks are estimated to decline to 121 million tonnes by the end of August 2026, down from a record 123.5 million tonnes a year earlier. Meanwhile, stock levels remain relatively high in Brazil – 50.6 (48.6) million tonnes – and in the United States – 11.6 (8.84) million tonnes, so analysts see no reason to worry about a global shortage. A reduction is expected in Argentina – to 29.5 (33.4) million tonnes.

Tags: soybean oil, soybean