Global grains, oilseeds trade continues to grow — Rabobank

Grains and oilseeds trade continues to grow steadily, reaching around 880 million tonnes in 2023-24 and an estimated value of $330 billion, according to the sixth edition of RaboResearch’s global grains and oilseeds map.

Trade volumes have increased in the past five years by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% for grains and 2.4% for oilseeds, but at a slower pace compared to the 7% CAGR seen in the previous decade, Rabobank said. Since Rabobank started publishing the grains and oilseeds map in 2003, the world has completely changed and new dynamics are emerging, it said.

Wheat

Wheat remains the most traded grain globally, but the market is fragmented with a much greater number of exporters and importers. In 2023-24, the top 10 wheat importers accounted for 44% of global wheat trade compared to 65% for palm oil, 67% for corn and 89% for soybeans.

“Overall, the wheat market is highly fragmented when it comes to production, imports and exports, and the number of players,” said Vito Martielli, senior analyst – grains and oilseeds for RaboResearch.

Wheat is the most widely consumed and produced staple crop with harvests occurring almost every month somewhere in the world. Global wheat imports have grown at a slower pace than other crops, just 3% CAGR compared to corn’s 4%, palm oil’s 4% and soybeans’ 6%, Rabobank said.

Russia has emerged as the world’s leading wheat exporter, significantly outpacing its competitors. Among the top importers, Egypt remains the largest wheat importer in Africa, Turkey is increasingly serving as a hub for wheat imports and re-exports, and China has increased its imports due to a rise in domestic consumption over the past five years.

Corn

Corn is the second most traded grain globally, with an average of 193 million tonnes traded between 2021 and 2023, according to the map. Unlike wheat, corn production and exports are highly concentrated in four countries — the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine — which together account for 90% of global corn trade.

The top 10 importers have shifted since 2003 with emerging markets increasing their share, now accounting for 70% of corn imports. Developed countries make up 30%. In Rabobank’s first map, the split was 55% for emerging markets and 45% for developed.

The United States is still the top corn exporter, but Brazil is catching up. Brazilian exports have grown at an 11% CAGR since 2001-02 compared to 1% for the United States.

Soybeans

Soybeans are the most traded oilseeds globally with an average of 168 million tonnes between 2021 and 2023. They are not produced where they are consumed with production concentrated in Brazil, the United States and other countries in South America. The largest importers are Asia and the EU.

“Developed countries such as those in the EU and Japan — which were the largest importers in 2002 — are now experiencing negative import growth, driven by dietary changes and a decline in animal protein consumption,” Martielli said. “China has emerged as the key driving force in the global soybean trade and crushing industry, reporting exponential growth in both consumption and imports. Brazil has become the largest producer and exporter globally.”

In the next decade, multiple factors are expected to influence global grains and oilseeds trade flows. On the demand side, the growing population in Sub-Saharan Africa will drive increased wheat imports, while China may experience a slowdown — or even a decline — in soybean imports, Rabobank said.

Changes in biofuel policies are likely to affect oilseed crushing dynamics, and the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is already reshaping traders’ business models. Additionally, weather can always have a significant impact on crop yields and price volatility while a distribution of power to multiple players will reshape trade relationships and strategic priorities across the value chain.

Declining birth rates worldwide, with the exception of Africa, cast uncertainty over future demand growth, Rabobank said.

“At the same time, the retreat from post-Cold War WTO trade norms, rising geopolitical tensions, and a shift toward a more multipolar world are contributing to global instability, which could hinder consistent trade expansion,” Rabobank said. “Additionally, climate change is introducing more volatile weather patterns, which, while disruptive, may also create new opportunities for a broader range of countries to participate in grain and oilseed trade as production becomes less predictable.”

Tags: corn, soybean, wheat