French wheat production rebounds in 2025, but export pressures and record stocks loom large

In 2025, France harvested 33.4 million tonnes of wheat, a strong recovery from the disastrous 25.6 million tonnes collected in 2024, bringing output close to the five-year average, according to Argus. Despite reduced sown area, yields reached an impressive 7.44 t/ha — 7% above the five-year average — thanks to excellent spring weather that ensured optimal flowering after a wet winter had initially raised fears of another poor season.

While domestic availability has surged and quality remains high, the real challenge lies in exports amid a global oversupply. France traditionally exports around half its wheat crop, with a significant share destined for non-EU countries. However, key markets have shrunk: Algeria has not purchased French wheat since 2023 due to strained diplomatic relations, and China, once a major buyer, has sharply cut grain imports. As a result, French wheat must fight for competitiveness against abundant global supplies, putting strong downward pressure on prices.

Argus forecasts French wheat exports for the 2025–26 marketing year at just 7.7 million tonnes, with Morocco (expected 2.5 million tonnes) and sub-Saharan Africa (2.4 million tonnes) as the primary destinations. Early-season exports are on track, reaching 3.4 million tonnes to non-EU countries by mid-November — 44% of the annual target. However, competition is intensifying: Russian exports are gaining momentum, and Argentina is expected to flood the market in the second half of the season with record yields and slightly lower protein content, potentially challenging French milling wheat (11–11.5% protein), especially in Morocco, France’s top partner.

Despite solid early export performance, ending stocks are projected to climb to 4 million tonnes by the end of the season — the highest level in over 20 years. Stable domestic consumption and limited export growth will fail to absorb the surplus, fundamentally restructuring France’s wheat balance sheet and highlighting the urgent need for effective flow management in the coming months.

Looking ahead, large carry-over stocks will weigh on the 2026–27 season. Attention is already shifting to the 2026 crop: sowing is nearly complete (89% of intended area as of 17 November 2025), with projected acreage rising to 4.69 million hectares — above the five-year average. Current weather conditions are optimal, but another bumper harvest would only add to the stockpile and intensify the search for export outlets in an already saturated global market.

Tags: export, France, wheat, crop forecast