French wheat export prices may remain below cost

France’s wheat exports outside the EU are set to rise sharply in 2025/26 from last season’s low, but the country still faces its biggest stockpiles in 21 years and there is a chance that prices will remain below production costs, Argus Media reported on Thursday.

France, the European Union’s biggest grain producer, has just finished harvesting this year’s crop, which Argus estimates at 33.4 million tonnes, up 30% on the rain-hit 2024 harvest.

Last year’s poor harvest has pushed non-EU exports to 3.5 million tonnes in 2024/25 to their lowest this century.

Argus forecasts French soft wheat shipments outside the EU at 8 million tonnes in 2025/26, with Morocco the largest at 2.5 million tonnes.

However, France is expected to end the 2025/26 season with its largest soft wheat stocks since 2024/25 at 4 million tonnes, according to the commodity data company.

Last month, agriculture agency FranceAgriMer forecast French soft exports outside the EU this season at 7.5 million tonnes, with stocks rising by two-thirds to 3.9 million tonnes, also a 21-year high.

Argus’s 8 million tonne export forecast is already ambitious, given ample global supplies and a drop in French sales to Algeria and China, previously its main markets, it said.

The company said France’s recent sales to Egypt and Southeast Asia demonstrated how much extra demand France would need, adding that it would have to ship 9.5 million tonnes outside the EU to balance its supplies.

The prospect of ample supplies in major exporting countries around the world has pushed wheat prices to a five-year low in recent months.

In France, farmgate prices have fallen by about 30 euros compared to the average production cost for the 2025 crop, estimated at 200 euros ($234.14) per tonne, according to Argus.

Argus analyst Maxence Devillers told a news presentation that, absent geopolitical or weather shocks, a price recovery could depend on farmers’ reluctance to sell.

“Overall, prices this season will be driven by a battle between strong fundamentals, high stocks and strong retention by producers,” he said.

Tags: export, prices, France, wheat