French Wheat Export Forecast Held At Lowest This Century

Farm office FranceAgriMer kept its monthly forecast for 2024/25 French soft wheat exports outside the European Union unchanged at the lowest this century, as a dearth of demand from Algeria and China continued to weigh.

A drying up in sales to the countries, two of France’s main overseas markets in recent years, has come on top of a poor French harvest and competition from cheaper Black Sea supplies.

FranceAgriMer maintained its projection of French soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations this season at 3.5 million metric tonnes, down 66% from 2023/24.

The office said the volume marked the lowest since at least 1996/97 in its records, after initially indicating last month it would be the smallest haul since at least 2000/01.

FranceAgriMer officials told reporters there were still no French exports to Algeria amidst diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers, while a lull in Chinese buying was continuing.

Among minor changes to the rest of FranceAgriMer’s soft wheat outlook, expected French soft wheat shipments within the EU were trimmed to 6.14 million tonnes from 6.16 million expected in December, now 2.5% below the 2023/24 volume.

Soft wheat stocks at the end of the season were projected at 2.90 million tonnes compared with 2.87 million forecast last month, 9.1% below last season’s level.

For barley, the office sharply cut its outlook for French exports outside the EU in 2024/25 to 1.9 million tonnes from 2.1 million in December, also reflecting a slowdown in Chinese demand.

The new forecast was down 50% from the 2023/24 level.

Forecast barley stocks at the end of the season were raised to 1.61 million tonnes from 1.38 million previously, now 25% above 2023/24 and a 16-year high, mainly due to the reduced forecast for non-EU exports.

For maize, expected 2024/25 stocks were increased to 2.80 million tonnes from 2.68 million to remain at a 10-year peak.

The increased forecast, now 40% above the 2023/24 level, factored in several adjustments including cuts to intra-EU exports and domestic feed demand.

For durum wheat, the office lowered sharply its 2024/25 stocks forecast to 106,000 tonnes from 143,000 tonnes, noting that quality problems in the French harvest were leading to some crop being offloaded domestically for feed use.

Tags: forecast, stocks, maize, durum wheat, demand, soft wheat, FranceAgriMer, China, Algeria, exports, barley, France