FranceAgriMer raises soft wheat export forecasts, cuts stocks

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday increased its forecast of French soft wheat exports, both within and outside the European Union, in 2024/25, but the European Union’s biggest grain producer is still on course for its worst wheat export campaign this century after a rain-hit harvest.

In supply and demand data, FranceAgriMer projected French soft wheat exports outside the EU this season at 3.25 million metric tons, up from 3.20 million projected last month, now 68% below last season’s level, while shipments within the EU in 2024/25 were pegged at 6.64 million tons from 6.55 million expected in May, now 5.6% above the 2023/24 volume.

Despite the upward revision, the forecasts for total soft wheat exports and for shipments outside the EU remained the lowest in the office’s records going back to 1996/97.

In addition to last summer’s dire harvest, French exports have been hit by stiff competition from the Black Sea region and a diplomatic rift between France and Algeria.

However, a sharp fall in prices this spring prompted late-season demand, including sales to Egypt. The increased export projections led FranceAgriMer to trim its outlook for soft wheat stocks at the end of the season on June 30. Stocks are now projected at 2.48 million tons, down from 2.62 million last month and 22% below last season’s level.

For barley, FranceAgriMer again cut the expected end-of-season stocks to 1.04 million tons from 1.16 million last month, after raising its export forecasts by a total of 150,000 tons from last month.

French barley shipments have been boosted by a wave of sales to North African and Middle Eastern markets, with traders citing low availability of barley in the rival Black Sea export zone.

The office again raised its forecast of maize stocks in 2024/25, to 3.53 million tons from 3.47 million projected last month due to another rise in estimated harvest supplies.

Tags: exports, harvest, European Union, forecast, shipments, soft wheat, FranceAgriMer