FranceAgriMer Raises 2023/24 Non-EU Wheat Export Forecast

Farm office FranceAgriMer increased its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2023/24, leading to lower projected stocks, although these remained at a 19-year high.

In its supply and demand outlook, the office pegged French non-EU soft wheat exports at 10.20 million metric tonnes, up from 10.05 million projected last month, while it trimmed its forecast for exports within the EU to 6.18 million tonnes from 6.25 million expected in May.

Soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season were projected at 3.83 million tonnes, down from 3.90 million forecast last month, but still 51% above the previous year after a larger harvest, and the highest since 2004/05.

This comes as France is expected to see a sharp drop in soft wheat output this year after torrential rainfall disturbed sowings and flooded fields.

In addition, some crops were suffering from large quantities of weeds this year because wet Spring weather hampered weeding, said Benoit Pietrement, a farmer and head of FranceAgriMer’s grain committee, adding that farmers were “very worried”. The total area hit has yet to be determined.

FranceAgriMer also lowered its forecast for end-2023/24 barley stocks to 1.50 million tonnes from 1.58 million, due mainly to a 100,000 tonne rise in projected exports outside the EU. The projected stocks are now 48% above last year’s.

FranceAgriMer forecast end-2023/24 maize stocks at 2.24 million tons, down from 2.27 million last month, as it raised estimated demand from animal feed makers and nudged up its outlook for exports to non-EU countries. Stocks would still be 35% above last year’s.

Tags: forecast, output, demand, soft wheat, FranceAgriMer, exports, France, estimate, European Union