France risks harvesting less than 8 mln tons of corn for the first time in 50 years

Extreme heat and prolonged drought continue to worsen France’s corn crop outlook. According to analysts, the country’s 2026 corn production could fall to its lowest level since 1976 unless weather conditions improve significantly in the coming weeks.

According to Benoit Fayot, senior analyst at Expana, crop losses are “increasing every day due to the heat and lack of rainfall.” The company currently forecasts France’s corn production at 8.9 mln tons, roughly one-third below last year’s harvest. At the same time, there is a risk that production could fall below 8 mln tons for the first time in the past 50 years.

Crop conditions are also deteriorating rapidly. According to FranceAgriMer, as of July 6 only 47% of the corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition, the lowest level recorded since at least 2011. France is one of the European Union’s largest corn producers, so a smaller harvest would have a significant impact on the European market.

Amid the worsening outlook in France, the European grain trade association Coceral has cut its EU corn production forecast by nearly 8% to 52.7 mln tons. This is the bloc’s lowest production estimate since 2007, reinforcing concerns over tighter supplies and providing support to market prices.

Analysts note that France has been experiencing its third heatwave since late May, while no significant rainfall is expected in the coming days. If weather conditions fail to improve, losses in the French crop could fully offset the positive impact of recent rainfall in Romania, preventing any increase in the EU’s overall corn harvest.

Tags: corn, France, crop forecast