Forecasts of declining exports and rising stocks in France increase pressure on wheat prices in the EU

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Last week, global wheat prices were actively growing and compensated for the fall caused by the “bearish” January report of the USDA. However, at the end of the week, traders began to take profits, which led to a decrease in quotations. In total, for the week, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 5.2%, in Kansas – by 6.5%, Minneapolis – by 6.6%, while European wheat rose by only 1.5%, and Black Sea wheat – by 2%.

Speculators warmed up wheat prices in the United States with active purchases based on Frost forecasts of -18.-12, and additionally they were supported by good results of weekly export sales and shipments of wheat.

According to the FAS USDA, for the week of January 7-13, wheat export sales from the United States increased to a monthly high of 380.6 thousand tons, and in general in the season they reached 16.5 million tons. actual exports for the week increased to 391.4 thousand tons, and in general in the season they reached 11.7 million tons or 52% of the forecast, although 7.5 months of my 2021/22 have already passed.

March wheat futures fell on Friday:

  • by 3 3.77 / ton to Чикаго 286.6/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
  • by 1 1.19 / ton to H 291.5/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
  • by 3 3.22/ton to.343.9 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

March Black Sea wheat futures in Chicago also fell 1 1/ton to 3 327 / ton, remaining under pressure from low European wheat prices.

European traders are concerned about the increase in wheat stocks in the EU due to lower export rates.

  • March European wheat futures on Paris Euronext fell by €1.25/ton to €272.5/ton or € 308.7 / ton.

The Algerian state agency OAIS has rejected French wheat offers at the last three tenders due to political disputes. Algeria is one of the world’s largest importers of flour wheat, which recently buys almost 6 million tons a year. The main supplier of wheat has traditionally been France, which exported 40-50% of its exports outside the EU to Algeria.

FranceAgriMer last week raised its forecast for final wheat stocks in 2021/22 MG in France to a 17-year high due to reduced supplies to Algeria, and lowered its estimate of soft wheat exports from 9.2 to 9 million tons.

In December, France exported 808 thousand tons of soft wheat outside the EU, including 508 thousand tons to China (compared to 514.8 thousand tons in October), Morocco – 213 thousand tons, Algeria – 33 thousand tons.

Iran’s GTC purchased food wheat produced in Russia, Germany and the Baltic states at a tender on January 20.



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