Forecasts of a decrease in the production of wheat and rapeseed in the EU in 2024/25 MY support quotations

Against the background of the delay in sowing and unfavorable weather conditions in the west and south of Europe, Refinitiv Commodities Research experts have reduced the forecast for the production of soft wheat in the EU in 2024/25 MY by 0.7 million tons to 127.3 million tons (127 .7 million tons in the previous season), and the forecast of rapeseed production was left at the level of 18.6 (19.5 last year) million tons.

Heavy rains and floods, especially in France, have slowed the pace of sowing, and in the near future, lower temperatures and night frosts in western and central regions are expected across Europe. Low temperatures will increase the resistance of plants, and a layer of snow will be able to protect crops. In December, temperatures will rise again, and the amount of precipitation in some regions will exceed the norm.

After lowering production forecasts, canola and wheat futures on Paris Euronext rose, despite stabilization of soybean and wheat prices in Chicago.

On the Paris exchange, December wheat futures rose 2.2% to €219.75/t or $241.2/t, recovering from Monday’s decline. Meanwhile, May and September futures are trading at €230/t or $252.5/t, as traders worry about production cut forecasts.

February rapeseed futures in Paris rose 1.6% to €452.2/t or $496.3/t, almost in line with August futures trading at €452.25/t.

At the same time, low rates of export of soft wheat and import of rapeseed to the EU put pressure on quotations and may limit their growth.

According to the European Commission, in the 2023/24 MY as of November 26, the EU exported 11.99 million tons, which is 22% higher than the corresponding indicator of the previous season (14.68 million tons). At the same time, the import of rapeseed to the EU during this period decreased by 51% from 2.94 to 1.95 million tons due to the delay in deliveries from Ukraine, which exported to the EU only 1.22 million tons out of the projected 3-3.5 million tons.

Tags: EU, prices, wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast