First concerns emerge in the EU about the new sunflower crop
Heat and drought in the Black Sea region have negatively affected sunflower crops in key producing regions, leading to an increase in export prices for sunflower oil in July by $25–45 per tonne depending on origin. High temperatures have affected the crop in some regions of Ukraine, in southern regions of Russia, as well as in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Turkey. The 2025/26 harvest is forecast to be lower than expected in the spring, especially in Ukraine, Turkey and Russia.
The EU is already raising concerns about the new sunflower crop. MARS has lowered its 2025/26 sunflower yield forecast to 1.94 t/ha, 8% below its previous estimate and 4% below the five-year average. This encourages European buyers to contract sunflower oil more actively, especially against the backdrop of uncertainty with palm oil due to the EU’s “green” policy. In July, sunflower oil exports from Ukraine increased by 47% compared to the previous month, reaching approximately 464 thousand tons.
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