Fertilizers & Crop Inputs 2026: Hidden Deficits, Rising Risks and Farmer Strategy Shift

UkrAgroConsult

KEY FEATURES AT THE START OF 2026

The beginning of 2026 finds Ukraine’s fertilizer market in a fragile balance, where supply looks sufficient on paper but remains highly vulnerable in reality. Energy disruptions, unstable logistics and currency pressure have turned fertilizers into a risk-managed input rather than a routine purchase.

Production interruptions caused by power outages continue to weigh on domestic output, while imports face delivery uncertainty during peak demand. Even with fertilizers available on global markets, physical delivery to farms on time remains a key concern.

Prices reflect this risk environment. In early 2026, ammonium nitrate trades around 29,900 UAH/mt, urea near 28,150 UAH/mt, and NPK close to 35,150 UAH/mt. These levels embed logistics, currency and security premiums rather than pure production costs.

Key topics in this block

• Energy and logistics risks behind fertilizer supply
• Why market balance remains fragile despite sufficient volumes
• Price formation driven by risk premiums

CROP INPUT MARKET IN UKRAINE: CURRENT TRENDS

The broader crop input (fertilizers and PPP) market enters 2026 with diverging dynamics. While fertilizers face potential shortages during peak spring demand, the plant protection segment remains oversupplied, intensifying competition among suppliers.

Farmers’ behavior has shifted toward pragmatism. Purchases are increasingly delayed closer to application periods, with a strong focus on cost efficiency, generics and proven technologies that directly protect margins.

Prices for PPP products remain under pressure due to high availability, but regulatory tightening and the gradual alignment with EU standards add long-term risks. Decisions made this spring will influence not only costs, but also yield stability.

Key topics in this block

• Risk of fertilizer shortages during spring peak
• Oversupply and price pressure in the PPP market
• Strategic shift in farmer purchasing behavior

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Tags: Ukraine, fertilizers, inputs