Fertilizer market winter 2025/26: Prices, financing and hidden risks

UkrAgroConsult

Winter 2025/26 is becoming a critical period for Ukraine’s fertilizer market, where price signals, financing tools and supply-side risks intersect. While recommended prices for nitrogen fertilizers are trending upward, real demand remains fragile due to limited farmer solvency.

The article details how partnership financing programs offered by banks and fertilizer suppliers are temporarily supporting demand. At the same time, price dynamics remain uneven: urea prices jumped by 1,650 UAH/mt in December, while nitrate, ammonium sulfate and UAN stayed flat, and NPK prices declined by 1,250 UAH/mt.

Special attention is paid to OSTHEM’s December price increases and the potential impact of growing Belarusian potash supply following partial sanction relief. These factors create a volatile setup for February–April 2026, when demand is expected to intensify.

What This Article Covers

• How fertilizer financing programs are reshaping short-term demand
• Why nitrogen fertilizer prices are rising unevenly
• OSTHEM pricing strategy and distributor behavior
• Limited farmer purchasing power as a key market constraint
• Belarusian potash supply as a potential bearish factor

What the Charts Show

• Monthly price dynamics of ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate and urea in 2025
• Diverging trends between nitrogen fertilizers and NPK prices

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Tags: Ukraine, prices, fertilizers