February futures for rapeseed on the Paris stock exchange rose to a 3-year high

Despite the fall in oil prices and soybean prices by 5-8% per month, the prices for rapeseed continue to grow on the forecasts of reduced harvest and containment of sales by farmers in the EU.

Yesterday on the Paris MATIF February futures for rapeseed rose by 1.1% to the highest since November 2022 level 520,75 €/t or 565 $/t (+1.5% for the week, +8.5% for the month) due to uncertainty with the supply of rapeseed in the second half of the season due to reduced harvest in Australia, restraining sales by EU farmers and lack of supply of canola from Canada.

At the same time, the spot prices for rapeseed for delivery to the plant in November-December remain at 500-515 €/t, as the processors have accumulated the necessary stocks.

According to the European Commission, in MY 2024/25 (as of October 25), the EU imported 1.75 mln tonnes of rapeseed (up 5% compared to the same period in 2023), of which 1.27 mln tonnes were supplied from Ukraine, 351 thsd tonnes – from Australia and 63 thsd tonnes – from Moldova, while no canola supplies from Canada were recorded.

November futures for canola on the Winnipeg stock exchange for three sessions fell by 2.6% to 625 CAD/t or 449 $/t (-1.3% per week, +2.3% per month) under pressure from falling soybean prices in Chicago.

Due to the depreciation of the Euro and the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, the price of canola 115 $/t lower than rapeseed in Europe, which should accelerate the supply of canola from Canada to the EU.

In Ukraine, the export purchase prices for rapeseed in the Black Sea ports increased by 200-300 UAH/t over the week to 24600-24800 UAH/t or 510-520 USD/t, but the competition for volumes is intensifying among traders amid the reduction of supply.

Since 2014, the EU countries have been gradually reducing the production of rapeseed and increasing its imports, including from Ukraine. This is due to crop rotation restrictions, a ban on pesticide use and other factors. However, in the nearest future, the potential for increasing rapeseed imports to the EU will be exhausted,” said Aaron Hensos, LMC analyst, at the International Conference ‘Fat-and-Oil Industry-2024’.

“In 2014, the EU consumed 91% of its own rapeseed and 9% of imported rapeseed, while in 2024 these figures will be 71% and 29%, respectively. One third of these imports are provided by Ukraine, but there are risks of a decrease in rapeseed imports to the EU, as well as Ukraine’s share in them.

At the same time, demand for sunflower oil is growing in the EU and demand for palm oil is falling. Demand for rapeseed oil depends on biofuel policy, but the overall trend is negative, so the EU may reduce rapeseed imports in the future.

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Tags: EU, prices, Canada, rapeseed, Australia