Favourable weather swells outlook for Australia wheat harvest

Australia should produce over 31 million metric tons of wheat in the upcoming harvest, around two million tons more than forecast earlier and significantly more than in 2023/24, after rain in major crop regions boosted yields, analysts said.

Australia is the world’s third-biggest wheat exporter and bumper production is likely to pressure global prices already trading close to their lowest in four years. Wv1 GRA/

A survey of ten analysts and traders in Australia and Singapore returned estimates for Australia’s 2024/25 crop of between 30.25 million tons and 36 million tons. The median estimate was 31.1 million tons.

This compares with an agriculture ministry forecast of 29.1 million tons in June and 2023/24 production of 26 million tons. The ministry forecast is due to be updated on Tuesday.

East Coast crop conditions have been excellent all year, but Western Australia, the biggest wheat-producing region, was extremely dry before rain began to fall in June.

“The crop is definitely enormous in New South Wales and Queensland, and Western Australia is looking good,” said Ole Houe at IKON Commodities in Sydney. His 36 million-ton forecast could be an underestimate, he said.

South Australia and parts of Victoria are drier but looking reasonable, Houe said.

Crops are entering a key development stage ahead of harvest beginning in October. Unseasonably hot weather in the east and potential end-of-winter frosts in the west could still hit yields, said Rod Baker at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth.

Baker said, however, clement weather in Western Australia could swell the crop and result in nationwide production above his 31.7 million-ton prediction.

“Depending on conditions, the harvest could drop to 29-29.5 million tons or could go as high as 33 million,” Baker said.

Australia’s weather bureau forecasts warmer-than-average temperatures nationwide in coming months, and median or above-median rainfall in September for every cropping region except some parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.

The survey’s median forecast for barley was 11.6 million tons and for canola 5.5 million tons. Those estimates compare with agriculture ministry forecasts in June of 11.5 million tons for barley and 5.4 million tons for canola.

ANALYST FORECASTS (million metric tons)

* Some analysts and traders are anonymous because they did not have permission to share their company’s estimates.

Tags: wheat, crop, global prices, estimates, median forecast, Australia, harvest, barley, canola, Production