Favorable weather for sowing lowers wheat quotes

Wheat prices started the week with a decline due to high sowing rates in the US and forecasts of precipitation in Ukraine and Russia, where drought has been prevailing for a long time.

According to the Crop Progress report, as of May 4, 44% of the area in the US was sown with spring wheat (34% on average over 5 years), seedlings were obtained on 13% of the area (4% on average), and the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition increased by another 2% to 51% (49% last year) per week.

At the same time, in France, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition remained at the same level as last week (74%), FranceAgriMer reports.

The IKAR agency has increased the forecast for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation by 1.3 million tons to 83.8 million tons due to increased precipitation in the southwest of the country.

July wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 2.3% to $195.2/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (0% for the week),
• by 1.6% to $195.8/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-1.3%),
• by 0.3% to $224/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2.4%),
• by 2.6% to €202.25/t or $228.9/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-2.1%).

Wheat exports from the US during April 24-May 1 decreased by 42% to 310.3 thousand tons, and in total for the season reached 19.77 million tons, which is 14.4% higher than last year’s pace. By the end of the season (June 1), another 2.6 million tons of wheat remain to be exported.

Falling stock prices are reducing export demand and wheat prices in Ukraine, but they are supported by forecasts of a reduced harvest due to drought.

During the week, export prices for food wheat in Ukrainian Black Sea ports remained at 10,950-11,100 UAH/t or $233-236/t, while those for feed wheat decreased to 10,500-10,600 UAH/t or $222-225/t.

In the 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 13.9 million tons of wheat, which is 14% lower than last year’s pace (15.9 million tons), and can ship another 2 million tons of grain by the end of the season.

Active sowing of spring wheat in the USA and Russia, rains in the main winter wheat growing regions will continue to keep world wheat prices low until harvest results are available.

The Indian Food Ministry has purchased 25.6 million tons of new crop wheat from local farmers for state reserves (20.5 million tons in the same period last year) out of the planned 31.2 million tons, indicating a good harvest this season.

According to the USDA FAS forecast, Canada will increase wheat production by 2% to 35.6 million tons in the 2025/26 MY due to the expansion of sowing areas by 2.6%, which will be the second largest indicator after the record 37.5 million tons in the 2013/14 season.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat