FAS: Turkey’s wheat, barley imports to soar

Smaller wheat and barley crops are expected in Turkey this year as drier-than-normal weather conditions mean the country will have to increase imports to meet domestic demand, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its latest projection, the FAS forecasts a 15% drop in wheat production year on year to 16.3 million tonnes, as a slight increase in wheat planted area will not offset the loss in yield.

“Production could fall even lower depending on the extent of the drought damage,” the FAS said. “In the main wheat growing areas of central and southeastern Anatolia there was insufficient rainfall, higher-than-normal winter temperatures, and an unexpected spring frost event that is expected to depress wheat yields on dry (non-irrigated) wheat farms between 15% to 30% compared to last year.”

To account for the expected drop in production, the FAS is ramping up its wheat import forecast to 10.3 million tonnes in marketing year 2025-26, more than tripling last year’s total of 3.2 million tonnes. If realized, it would be the highest intake since the 2019-20 season.

The agency’s forecast for barley is even more dire, as it projects this year’s output at 5.1 million tonnes, a 28% decrease from the previous year.

“In comparison to wheat, barley is at a higher risk to drought because it is almost all dry farmed,” the FAS said.

As a result, Turkey is forecast to import 1.6 million tonnes of barley, compared to only 150,000 tonnes in 2024-25, the FAS said. It would be the highest import total since 2.8 million tonnes were imported in 2021-22.

“This prediction assumes that the government will intervene in the market, as they have done in the past, by either cutting tariffs, establishing a tariff quota or by having the Turkish Grain Board import and resale barley to end users,” the FAS said.

Tags: Production, wheat, drought, crop, forecast, yield, imports, Turkey, barley