FAS bullish on Argentine soybean crop

Strong soybean production and crush are anticipated in Argentina in the 2024-25 marketing year, but those lofty projections could be impacted by a developing La Niña weather pattern, according to the latest report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

With nearly 90% of the soybean crop planted, crop development is progressing well with 93% of the crop in the ground reported in good or excellent condition, the FAS said.

“However, potential La Niña-induced dryness could still impact yields throughout the growing season,” the FAS said. “Despite these challenges, Argentina is set for record-high soybean crush, forecast at 42 million tonnes, driven by robust exports and a steady crush rate.”

Soybean output is pegged at 52 million tonnes, which would be the highest level in six years.

“This is driven by soy acreage gaining ground to corn and consistent favorable weather conditions with sufficient rainfall the last several months,” the FAS said.

The FAS noted the soybeans continue to replace corn acreage in several areas due to fears of the impact of corn stunt and expected low prices for both crops in the coming year.

The agency increased its soybean acreage forecast to 17.8 million hectares in 2024-25, up 900,000 hectares from its initial projection.

The FAS also made a significant upward revision to its soybean export forecast, increasing it to 7.2 million tonnes from 5 million tonnes, which would be the highest mark since 2019-20.

In 2023-24, Argentina was the world’s third leading soybean producer and fourth largest soybean meal exporter.

Tags: crop forecast, soybean, Argentina