FAO’s 2025 wheat production forecast remains positive

FAO has slightly lowered its estimate for global cereal production in 2024 by 1.1 million tonnes compared to the April figure. The global cereal output is now pegged at 2 848 million tonnes, remaining marginally lower year on year, largely due to a reduced world maize outturn. FAO’s forecasts of rice production in 2024/25 have changed only marginally since April. As a result, and largely due to a robust expansion in area planted, global rice output is forecast to expand by 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2024/25 to reach an all-time high of 543.6 million tonnes (milled basis).

The world cereal utilization for 2024/25 is forecast at 2 870 million tonnes, an increase of 1.9 million tonnes from last month and 28.2 million tonnes (1.0 percent) above the 2023/24 level. Global wheat utilization for 2024/25 is raised by 1.8 million tonnes, primarily reflecting higher expected use in Argentina and the European Union, bringing the forecast to 797 million tonnes, up fractionally (0.1 percent) from previous season. FAO’s projection for global coarse grain utilization in 2024/25 remains nearly unchanged at 1 534 million tonnes, indicating to a 1.1 percent growth from the 2023/24 level. The anticipated increase is mostly driven by higher feed use of maize, especially in China and the Russian Federation. Largely reflecting more buoyant use expectations for various countries located in Africa, FAO’s forecast of world rice utilization has been raised by 0.4 million tonnes since April to 539.4 million tonnes. At that level, world rice uses would stand at a fresh peak and exceed the previous season’s estimate by 2.0 percent.

The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of season in 2025 is lowered further this month, by 5.1 million tonnes, bringing the forecast to 868.2 million tonnes, indicating a decline of 16.6 million tonnes (1.9 percent) below opening levels. The latest forecasts indicate that the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2024/25 would stand at 29.9 percent, down from 30.8 percent in 2023/24, but still at a relatively comfortable level. Global wheat stocks are revised down by 1.9 million tonnes this month, mostly reflecting lower stock estimates in the European Union and Türkiye. Despite the downward revision, global wheat stocks are still forecast to increase marginally above opening levels, by 0.6 percent, to 318 million tonnes in 2024/25. Global coarse grain stocks are also lowered this month, by 3.1 million tonnes, on account of lower maize stocks, especially in the United States of America due to largest exports. The downward revision this month further lowers the forecast of global coarse grain stocks at the end of seasons in 2024/25 to 344.5 million tonnes, representing a 6.7 percent fall from opening levels with most of the decline attributed to a drawdown of global maize stocks. FAO’s forecast of world rice stocks at the close of 2024/25 marketing seasons has changed little since April, continuing to point to global reserves rising 3.1 percent above their already ample opening level to reach an all-time high of 205.7 million tonnes. At a country level, China, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines are seen spearheading the forecast stock expansion, which alongside build-ups in other countries could overshadow expected drawdowns in reserves namely in Japan, the Republic of Korea and Myanmar.

Nearly unchanged this month, world trade in cereals in 2024/25 is still forecast at 478.6 million tonnes and is expected to decline by 6.8 percent from the 2023/24 level. Global wheat trade in 2024/25 (July/June) is lowered marginally this month, by almost 1.0 million tonnes, mostly reflecting another downgrade in the Russian Federation’s export volumes and smaller purchases by Türkiye. With this further downward revision, global wheat trade in 2024/25 (July/June) is forecast to contract by 7.4 percent from the 2023/24 level to 194.0 million tonnes. The forecast for global trade in coarse grains in 2024/25 (July/June) still stands at 224.2 million tonnes, pointing to an 8.2 percent decline from the 2023/24 level. The steep decline stems from anticipated contractions in trade volumes of all major coarse grains (barley, maize and sorghum). These declines are largely driven by lower demand from China, the worlds largest coarse grain importer, as well as smaller exportable supplies in some of the major exporters, including maize in Brazil and barley in the Russian Federation.  International trade in rice is now seen reaching 60.4 million tonnes in 2025 (January-December), up 1.2 percent from the 2024 all-time high and little changed from April expectations.

Looking ahead to 2025

Global prospects for wheat production remain mostly unchanged from the previous month, with only minor adjustments made due to weather-related developments. FAO’s latest forecast for 2025 wheat production stands at 795 million tonnes, on par with the previous year’s output.

In Europe, the wheat production forecast for the European Union has been revised slightly higher this month, as improved weather conditions in southern countries bolstered overall yield expectations, reinforcing the outlook of a strong production rebound in 2025 following the low of 2024. However, developing dryness in northern areas, marked by rainfall deficits and warmer-than-usual temperatures, poses a slight downside risk. In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, a higher-than-expected wheat area has edged the production forecast upward and closer to the five-year average, but as in some other northern European Union countries, unusually warm temperatures in April have raised some concerns for yield potentials. The forecast for the Russian Federation remains unchanged, with adverse weather and a reduced area expected to result in a lower year-on-year output. In Ukraine, April rainfall helped improve crop conditions in parts after earlier dryness, but the wheat outlook still points to a below-average output largely reflecting the impact of the conflict. In Northern America, Canada’s main spring season wheat planting is underway, with production prospects still pointing to an output on par with last year’s level. In the United States of America, drought concerns persist, likely keeping total wheat production slightly below 2024 levels. In Asia, hot and dry weather conditions in India prompted a trimming to the national production forecast. However, the widespread use of irrigation has limited the impact, and a record wheat harvest is still predicted in 2025. Pakistan’s production forecast is raised slightly this month, reflecting a larger-than-anticipated area; the wheat output is forecast to slightly exceed the five-year average. In the Near East, higher precipitation volumes in April were insufficient to offset earlier rainfall deficits and warmer-than-usual temperatures, consequently wheat production expectations in Iran (Islamic Republic of) and Türkiye remain below average. In Northern Africa, the outlook is mixed: Morocco faces a below-average harvest, Algeria is forecast to harvest a near-average wheat crop, and Egypt and Tunisia (where irrigation is extensively used) are expected to see average to above-average outputs. In the southern hemisphere, where wheat plantings are underway, Argentina’s production prospects have been bolstered by predictions of better-than-expected rainfall, underpinning a small upward revision to the production forecast, which remains above the five-year average. In Australia, wheat production is forecast to fall year-on-year but remain above 30 million tonnes.

Harvesting of the 2025 coarse grain crops is beginning in southern hemisphere countries. In Brazil, good price prospects have underpinned an estimated increase in the area, while overall conducive weather conditions are likely to result in a small upturn in yields. Overall, total maize production in 2025 is pegged above last year’s outturn and the five-year average. The maize production forecast for Argentina remains unchanged this month, and below the five-year average, mostly owing to a cutback in the sown area largely on the back of fears of maize stunt disease, spread by leafhopper insects. In South Africa, total maize production is revised slightly higher in May, reflecting continued beneficial weather since the turn of the year, and the 2025 harvest is forecast to recover after the dry-weather-reduced output in 2024. Planting of coarse grains crops is underway in the northern hemisphere countries, and early expectations in the United States of America, the world’s leading producer, point to a 5 percent increase in plantings, supporting expectations of a sizeable production increase in 2025.

Tags: grain, wheat, FAO, crop forecast