FAO forecasts wheat production in Ukraine in 2025 at a level below the average for the past five years

FAO’s forecast for world wheat production in 2025 is broadly unchanged from its first review in March. Global wheat production is forecast at 795 million tonnes, in line with the previous year’s figure after raising estimates for 2024, the organization said in a report.

In Ukraine, wheat production in 2025 is expected to be below the five-year average due to the effects of the war, while dry weather is likely to lead to a modest annual decline in yields.

The state of winter wheat crops in the main producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere has remained largely unchanged over the past month. In the European Union, official data indicate wheat production of 135.5 million tonnes, up 12% from a year earlier, thanks to increased areas and yields after weather failures in 2024. However, a lack of rainfall in the east of the region poses a moderate risk to yield potential.

In Russia, production is forecast to decline in 2025 due to low soil moisture and reduced acreage.

In the United States, total wheat production in 2025 is forecast to decline due to lower yields, with a larger area of ​​winter wheat affected by drought compared to last year.

In Canada, where the main planting season begins in May, early forecasts indicate an expansion of wheat acreage due to rising prices, but this is likely to be offset by lower yields, so production will remain around last year’s level, although it will exceed the five-year average.

Tags: FAO, crop forecast, wheat