Falling wheat prices reduce interest in growing the crop in Brazil

The sharp decline in wheat prices in Brazil in 2025 has significantly weakened incentives to grow it and increased the country’s dependence on imports. According to the Center for Advanced Research in Applied Economics (Cepea) and the National Supply Company (Conab), the market remains under pressure in early 2026, and there is no sign of a rapid recovery in prices.

Analysts say the combination of low domestic prices, ample supply on foreign markets and high inventories is holding back producers’ profitability. In the state of Paraná, a key production region, food wheat prices fell by 16% in 2025, to an average of 1,183.75 reais per ton in December. In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, the decline was even deeper, 18%, to 1,036.09 reais per ton.

These dynamics directly affect farmers’ planting decisions. According to Cepea, due to tight margins, no significant expansion of wheat areas is expected in the first half of 2026. In some regions, production may even decrease, which will maintain Brazil’s structural dependence on imported grain.

At the same time, Conab predicts that imports will remain high. For the period from August 2025 to July 2026, wheat purchases abroad may reach 6.7 million tons, with import rates from December 2025 to mid-2026 being higher than at the beginning of the marketing year. Total domestic supply is estimated at more than 16 million tons, which is 5.3% higher than the previous season.

Of this volume, about 11.8 million tons are forecast to go to domestic consumption. Exports may amount to about 2.24 million tons, which helps to partially reduce pressure on the domestic market, but is not able to ensure a sustainable increase in prices. Ending stocks at the end of July 2026 are expected to be around 2 million tonnes, equivalent to 8.7 weeks of consumption, the highest level since 2020.

International competition remains an additional pressure factor. Argentine wheat continues to enter the Brazilian market at attractive prices, and the Argentine harvest in the 2025/26 season, according to estimates by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reached a record 27.8 million tonnes. In such conditions, Cepea experts predict a cautious agribusiness mood in 2026 and the preservation of the wheat market in Brazil under the influence of low prices, high stocks and strong import competition.

Tags: wheat, Brazil, prices