Export prices for rapeseed in Ukraine grow following stock exchange quotations
Purchase price of rapeseed in Ukraine during the week increased by 1000-1300 UAH/t to 23000-23500 UAH/t or 485-500 $/t with delivery to the ports of the black sea amid restraint of sales by producers and low yields, which may reduce exports in the new season.
Demand price for the supply of rapeseed to the EU in July – August also increased by 10 €/t to 465-470 €/t, but the supply of supplies by road is insignificant, due to high prices in the black sea ports.
As of July 19, Ukraine harvested 1.8 mln tonnes of rapeseed with the yield of 2.31 t/ha (2.47 t/ha on the same date last year), so the total harvest may reach 3.5-3.7 mln tonnes, compared to 4.7 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY.
International exporters with processing plants in Europe, such as Cargill, ADM and Viterra, are raising prices to ship about 3 mln tons of rapeseed from Ukraine to the EU. Ukrainian processors are not able to offer competitive prices, so domestic crushing volumes may decline in 2024/25 MY.
In 2023/24 MY, the EU reduced imports of rapeseed compared to the previous season by 24% from 7.5 to 5.7 million tons, while supplies from Ukraine increased by 6% to 3.2 million tons, but decreased from Canada by 59% to 100 thousand tons, and from Australia by 43% to 1.9 million tons due to the reduction of the harvest in the country.
August futures for rapeseed on the stock exchange in Paris for the week rose by 5.7% to 493,75 €/t or 538 $/t (+6.9% for the month), and will remain at this level until the end of the harvest in Europe.
Improved weather in France will accelerate the harvesting of rapeseed, and the yield is now in line with last year, but farmers are still holding back sales.
November futures on canola on the Winnipeg stock exchange for the week rose by 8.5% (after falling in the previous week by 5%) to 675 CAD/t or 490 $/t (+9.2% for the month) amid the heat in the prairies, which can reduce the yield potential. However, precipitation this week will reduce temperatures and stress for plants.
The decline in oil and soybean oil prices will restrain the growth of prices for canola and rapeseed in the near future, especially amid deteriorating weather conditions in Australia and Canada.
December futures for soybean oil in Chicago during the week traded at 997 $/t, and September futures for Brent crude oil during this time fell by 1.7% to 82.4 $/barrel.
the Decline in prices for soybean meal and oil in China, caused by active imports of soybeans, will also soon reduce the demand for oilseeds from China.
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