Export demand for corn in Ukraine has fallen sharply amid declining world prices

This week on the Chicago stock exchange, the July corn futures fell by 7.1% to 165.3 $/t (-10.2% for the month), and the December futures – by 7.1% to 172 $/t (-11%) on forecasts of increasing stocks and expanding planting areas in the United States.

on Friday, the USDA will publish reports on grain stocks and acreage in the United States. Traders expect that corn stocks will be estimated at 123.7 million tons, which is 19.6 million tons higher than last year, and corn planting areas will reach 93,353 million acres, while the USDA previously estimated them at 90 million acres.

the Fall in corn prices in the United States has reduced global demand prices, including in Ukraine. Traders stopped buying corn, and the purchase prices with delivery to the Black Sea ports fell to 170 USD/t or 7600-7900 UAH/t.

In 2023/24 MY (as of June 25), Ukraine exported 29 mln tonnes of corn against USDA forecast of 26 mln tonnes, while last year on the same date the country exported 28.8 mln tonnes of corn. Therefore, after adjusting the balance for Ukraine in 2024/25 MY, the initial stocks will be minimal.

The gradual decline in feed wheat prices is putting pressure on new crop corn prices, especially amid favorable weather in Ukraine and the US.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices