Experts report risk of losing 3.9 mln tons of wheat in Russia due to frosts

russia may lose 3.9 million tons of wheat worth almost 45 billion rubles due to frosts that affected crops in a number of regions in early May.

Such an assessment of the impact of the May bad weather on the harvest was made by SovEcon, noting that this is a preliminary forecast.

“After collecting additional data from agricultural producers, as well as local and federal authorities, SovEcon revised its forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia. In early May, the harvest was initially estimated at 89.6 million tons, then adjusted to 85.7 million tons (minus 3.9 million tons),” the company said in a statement. – This revision also reflects a 0.3 million hectare reduction in wheat acreage to 29.2 million hectares, and a reduction in the yield forecast to 2.93 tons per hectare from 3.03 tons per hectare.

Regional estimates of grain harvest have also been revised. Thus, in the center they have been reduced by 2 million tons, in the south – by 1.2 million tons, in the Volga region – by 0.7 million tons.

Commenting on the data of the Ministry of Agriculture that 0.5 million hectares will have to be reseeded this year due to frosts, experts note that their analysis shows a much larger figure – up to 1 million hectares.

Experts also note that agrarians in other countries are facing difficult weather conditions for growing wheat. In particular, there are heavy rains in France and Germany. Under these conditions, they expect a continued rise in world wheat prices.

As reported earlier, the Institute of Agrarian Market Conjuncture (IKAR) reduced its forecast for grain harvest in Russia due to frosts in the center and Volga region, as well as dry weather in the south. Its new estimate of the gross harvest is 135 million tons (7 million tons less than the previous estimate), including 86 million tons of wheat (5 million tons less).

Tags: grain, crop forecast, Russia