Even with export adjustments, lower soybean stocks support prices in Chicago

 The USDA’s August report surprised the market by unexpectedly reducing soybean acreage by approximately 1 mln hectares. This revision forced adjustments to the supply and demand table and sent soybeans sharply higher, which recovered all the losses accumulated over the previous 8 to 9 sessions. Of course, this movement also reflected in the domestic market, but largely as compensation: while soybeans soared in Chicago, premiums at ports fell, and the dollar suffered negative adjustments. In this context, longer maturities, such as March/26, began to offer excellent hedge points in the range of USD 10.70/10.80—a very attractive level considering market expectations in the medium term.

The trading pace was steady over the week, with Chicago supporting physical market trends and encouraging sellers to position themselves, taking advantage of offers. In August, with virtually no export window, attention turned to September onward. In Rio Grande do Sul, there was a good turnover.

In the domestic market, prices remain strong, supported by the local basis. However, opportunities tend to diminish, as the industry has good position coverage—some until October. This can generate greater disparity in bids, with buyers pushing for lower prices and producers resisting offers, widening the market differential.

At ports, sales volumes are likely to decline from now on. Export lineups remain quite strong compared to last year, signaling that buyers are well positioned. Even so, it is natural for trading company programs to begin to slow down, which could ease premiums until the end of the year—especially with the arrival of the US crop and China driving its demand to the United States.

This is a point of concern: the entire US harvest cycle lies ahead, and everything is still uncertain as we await the extent to which China will move in search of US soybeans. To compensate for the acreage reduction, USDA raised yield to 53.6 bushels/acre—a record level, if confirmed. Even so, the reduced acreage already implies a smaller crop and tighter US stocks, even with further downward adjustments to the export outlook. However, until the harvest is complete, it is not possible to gauge the true size of production, which could bring additional volatility in Chicago. The impact, in turn, will also depend on the intensity of Chinese demand in the US market.

USDA has indicated that the US soybean crop is expected to reach 4.292 bln bushels in 2025/26, equivalent to 116.8 mln tons. Yield was estimated at 53.6 bushels per acre. In the previous report, the figures were 4.335 bln (117.98 mln) and 52.5 bushels, respectively. The market expected production at 4.371 bln or 118.96 mln.

Ending stocks are projected at 290 mln bushels or 7.89 mln tons, compared to 310 mln in the previous report (8.44 mln). The market was betting on a carryover of 359 mln bushels or 9.75 mln tons. USDA is projecting the crush at 2.540 bln bushels and exports at 1.705 bln. In July, the figures were 2.540 bln and 1.745 bln.

The report projected a global soybean crop in 2025/26 of 426.39 mln tons. For 2024/25, the forecast is 423.97 mln tons. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are estimated at 124.9 mln tons, below the market forecast of 127.9 mln tons. Stocks for the 2024/25 season are estimated at 125.2 mln tons, compared to an expected 125 mln tons.

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that soybean crushing in the United States in July reached 195.7 mln bushels, above the market forecast of 191.6 mln bushels. In the same month last year, crushing hit 182.9 mln, while in June this year, the volume was 185.3 mln bushels.

Soybean stocks as of July 31st fell to 1.379 bln pounds, down 0.4% from the 1.384 bln pounds recorded at the end of June. The market, on average, expected stockpiles at 1.380 bln pounds.

Tags: China, prices, soybeans, US, ending stocks, crop, yield, acreage, Market