European potato market is on the verge of an overproduction crisis⠀

The European potato market is under severe pressure this year. The EU potato area is increasing by no less than 77,000 hectares (+5.5%) to a total of 1.47 million hectares – the strongest growth in years. This sharp expansion comes at a time when European exports of French fries and other frozen potato products are facing significant challenges.

The result? The Dutch firm DCA Market Intelligence, based in Lelystad, warns in a report that the potential overproduction of processing potatoes could push the current market further out of balance.

Surge in Processing Potato Plantings

New figures show that the EU-4 (Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands) now cultivate more than 600,000 hectares of processing potatoes, a 7.5% increase compared to last year. France leads the surge, but the other three countries are also planting at record levels.

This growth is exceptionally large and stands out because a considerable portion of this additional area is being grown without contracts. Farmers, when planning crops last winter, anticipated strong demand and maximized contract options with processors. However, the open market has since collapsed, and processors have scaled back their contract volumes.

Record Harvest on the Horizon?

With this acreage, the harvest could reach over 25 million tons based on average yields. Under ideal growing conditions, production could even hit 30 million tons — a volume that, according to DCA Market Intelligence, the market can hardly absorb. While drought in parts of Europe will likely prevent a record crop, the balance between supply and demand remains under extreme pressure.

Fries Exports Stagnate

The European fries’ industry is in a difficult position. Export figures show a mixed picture: global demand for fries is still growing by more than 4%, but Europe is losing ground in key export markets. While France posted strong growth (+30%), Belgium (-6.6%) and Germany (stable) saw declines in volumes. The Netherlands managed only a modest increase of 3.6%, despite expanding processing capacity.

Fierce Global Competition Intensifies

The biggest challenge? Fierce competition from countries such as India, China, and Egypt. These nations are investing heavily in processing and exports, capturing market share in Asia and the Middle East through lower costs and improving product quality. Over the past year, India’s exports grew by 35%, and China’s soared by 75%.

Europe is struggling to keep up with this price pressure. In the Netherlands, the contract price for potatoes now accounts for about 40% of the current trade price for French fries. Processors are trying to cut costs, but labor and energy remain expensive.

Notably, contract prices for potatoes for delivery in 2025/26 have reached record highs. To secure supply, processors locked in large volumes early, leaving little room to benefit from lower free-market prices. This mismatch is making the market even more volatile.

Smaller Role for Europe in Export Markets

Global demand for French fries continues to rise, but Europe is playing a diminishing role in this growth. A combination of high production costs, mounting competition from low-cost countries, and a surplus of potatoes is putting pressure on the margins of both processors and growers.

For farmers, expanding acreage without contracts carries significant risks. If the market becomes oversupplied, open-market prices could drop sharply. For fries processors, production costs are expected to remain high, while access to export markets is becoming more challenging. This puts not only factory profitability under pressure but also the stability of contract relationships.

What Does This Mean for Consumers?

For now, French fries will remain widely available, but price drops at Northwest European supermarkets or fast-food outlets are unlikely. High contract prices for the current season and elevated production costs are filtering through the supply chain. Processors and retailers typically work with long-term agreements, which also limits price fluctuations.

At the same time, European processors risk losing market share to countries that can produce at lower costs. While the European fries supply chain is under severe strain, significant price hikes for consumers are also not expected in the short term.

Tags: EU, prices, potato, crop forecast