EU Wheat & Romania 2026: Prices Under Support, Costs Under Pressure

UkrAgroConsult

At the start of 2026, the EU wheat market — with Romania at its core — is entering a sensitive phase where price support from lower russian exports collides with mounting production and cost pressures. Weather-driven disruptions in the Black Sea region have already reshaped trade expectations, while demand ahead of Ramadan added a short-term bullish tone to the market.

Romanian milling wheat (12%) is currently trading around USD 238/mt FOB Constanta, reflecting both tighter export availability from competitors and stable buying interest from North Africa. At the same time, the market remains cautious: high ending stocks and strong South American competition continue to limit upside potential.

Beyond prices, the real stress point is inside farm economics. Rapidly rising land rents, higher energy costs and increasing prices for inputs are narrowing margins and forcing farmers to reassess planting decisions. This article explains why cost pressure, rather than yield alone, may become the key driver of market behavior in 2026.

What this article is about

• Why lower russian exports are supporting EU wheat prices
• Romania’s role as a key Black Sea wheat supplier in early 2026
• Price levels for milling wheat and market expectations
• Frost risks and their uneven impact on winter crops
• Land rent as a growing financial threat for farmers
• Rising energy, labor and input costs shaping 2026 strategies

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Tags: prices, wheat, Romania, EU