EU to get lowest wheat harvest since 2018

European wheat production estimates fell further this week as leading producers in France and Germany continue to have lower than expected yields. This situation has been brought about by persistent rainfall in these countries, which has had a negative impact on crop conditions. Lower estimates this week from private forecasters, the U.S. Farm Service (FAS) and the French and German governments show a complicated picture.

For example, soft wheat production in the EU-27 is now expected to be only 116.50 million tons, 5.8 million tons less than the previous forecast and would be the smallest crop since 2018 (114.8 million tons).

Also experts predict problems with the quality of harvested grain.

It is noted that the French government recently reduced its estimate of the soft wheat harvest in the country by 3.3 million tons – to 26.3 million tons. This is 25% less than last year and is the smallest harvest since 1987.

Rain has also delayed the German harvest, with some reports of lower yields and protein content, but regional differences are also evident. The German statistical office gave its first estimate of the 2024 wheat harvest at 19.7 million tons, 21.5 million tons lower than last year and the lowest since 2003.

Stratégie Grains’ latest estimate for the EU-27 barley crop is 50.6 million tons, still above the 2023 minimum harvest. But it is now below the five-year average.

EU corn production is also expected to be around 60 million tons, also below last year’s crop.

The smaller EU harvests are providing some support to prices, particularly for wheat. However, the positive outlook for corn in the US limits the growth of feed grain prices and may put more pressure on global prices.

Tags: EU, wheat, crop forecast