EU rapeseed harvest to reach 20 mln tons, sunflower – 8.3 mln tons – Expana

Analyst Expana has raised its rapeseed crop forecast and lowered its estimate for sunseed production in the EU.

In the 2025-2026 season, rapeseed production is expected to be 20 million tonnes, compared with the July forecast of 19.6 million tonnes. The estimates have risen on expectations of a larger harvest in France, Poland, Romania and Hungary, Reuters writes, citing the company’s data.

At the same time, the sunseed production forecast has been lowered by almost 1.1 million tonnes, to 8.3 million tonnes, amid unfavourable conditions in Bulgaria and Romania. The forecast figure is lower than last year’s 8.7 million tonnes, when crops in south-eastern Europe suffered from hot and dry weather.

Severe heat in southern Europe has damaged spring crops at the ripening stage, such as sunseed and maize, but helped farmers with the harvest of winter crops – rapeseed and wheat.

An expected decrease in sunseed production in the EU will lead to a supply shortage. Supply and demand for rapeseed will be balanced: high interest from processors will absorb a larger harvest than last season.

Additional supply of rapeseed is expected due to supplies from Canada. This rapeseed (canola) will be transported to the EU instead of China, which has introduced protective tariffs on Canadian products.

Expana predicts that Canada will not export rapeseed to China in the 2025-2026 season. This is about 4 million tons, which will be redirected to other markets.

Tags: sunseed, rapeseed, crop forecast