EU pork exports set to decrease as Asian production recovers – report

Production capacity in China, the Philippines and Viet Nam is expected to recover, leading to lower import demand, despite the expected continuation of ASF outbreaks, according to the EU Agricultural Outlook report (2024-2035).

In contrast, there could be increased demand for imports in the US, Australia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Switzerland and some other Asian regions. Over the coming decade, the UK could become the largest single export destination for EU pork (replacing China) even though UK demand is expected to decrease over the projection period.

EU exports could decrease by 1% per year between the last 3-year average and 2035 (-338 000 t between 2022-2024 average and 2035) considering the high exports volumes in 2022 to China. Accounting EU export volumes from 2024, they are projected to remain almost stable until 2035. The EU will need to strengthen and diversify its pork export portfolio in the coming years.

Pork imports to the EU are projected to remain low with a decrease of 2.2% annually between the 2022–2024 average and 2035, mainly because the UK is focusing on its domestic market, while significant increases in imports from other countries are not likely.