European Commission forecasts a reduction in imports of wheat, pulses and rapeseed into the EU in the next 10 years

According to the EU Agricultural Outlook 2025–2035 report, the European Union will be self-sufficient in grain production in the next 10 years, as wheat yields have the potential to grow, while corn and barley yields will remain relatively stable. This is reported by The Western Producer.

The positive effect of breeding and new technologies will be partially offset by the impact of extreme weather events, the expansion of organic farming, and the rising cost of resources, particularly nitrogen fertilizers, as well as their limited availability.

According to the EC forecasts, EU imports of common wheat will decrease by an average of 3.3% annually due to the growth of domestic production, while imports of maize may increase slightly due to its significant availability on the world market. The exception will be oat production, which will exceed the average level of 2023-2025 by 7.5% by 2035, against the background of active demand from the food industry.

Significant changes are expected in the oilseed and pulse markets. Total EU production of these crops could reach 36.1 million tonnes by 2035, 2.5% above the average for 2023–2025. Pulse production will grow by an average of 0.8% per year, the highest rate among all protein and oilseed crops, allowing the EU to significantly reduce its imports by 2.1% per year.

At the same time, rapeseed production is expected to remain stable at around 18.4 million tonnes, while demand from the biofuels sector is expected to decrease by around 4.5% compared to 2023-2025, leading to an overall reduction in oilseed imports. An additional factor will be a decrease in feed consumption in the EU due to a decline in pork, beef and veal production, as well as improved animal feed efficiency.

According to the EU Agricultural Outlook 2025–2035, cereal prices will increase by an average of 1.7% per year, mainly due to higher fertilizer costs and general production costs. Oilseed prices will increase more slowly than in the previous decade, with soybeans expected to grow the most, at around 1.6% per year.