EU Commission estimates for rapeseed diverge from market data

According to the current estimates of the EU Commission, the EU rapeseed harvest is likely to be smaller than previously expected. The main reason for this is the smaller crop in France. According to UFOP, many market participants are also questioning expectations for the German harvest.

The EU rapeseed harvest has already been completed in some areas. Yield reports confirm the Association’s forecast estimates, which had previously been lowered. Unfavorable weather conditions as well as the presence of pests were largely responsible for the drop in yields. Against this background, the EU Commission has repeatedly revised its crop forecast downward. According to the latest data, the EU is likely to harvest almost 18.4 million tons of rapeseed, which is 0.5 million tons less than expected in June and 1.3 million tons less than in 2023. The International Grains Council (IGC) is slightly more optimistic with the latest forecast of 18.5 million tons, as is the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) with 18.9 million tons.

The main reason for the downward revision is the expected lower French harvest. The Commission is now forecasting 3.9 million tons, while 4.1 million tons were still expected in June. This means that last year’s result of 4.3 million tons will clearly not be achieved.

Romania’s rapeseed production has also been revised downwards. The Commission forecasts a harvest of just under 1.5 million tons, almost 0.1 million tons less than in June and therefore 0.3 million tons less than last year. The decline in the previous month was equally significant for Hungary, Latvia and the Czech Republic. Here, too, last year’s result was permanently lowered. For Germany, the forecast was only slightly revised downward to just under 4.0 million tons. A significant gap to last year’s volume of 4.2 million tons remains. This means that the EU Commission’s forecast is significantly higher than the estimates of many market partners and the most recent estimate of 3.8 million tons by the German association Raiffeisen.

Expectations were only slightly raised for Slovakia, Ireland and Denmark. However, the volumes estimated by the EU Commission are still below last year’s harvest. According to the Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH) survey, the slightly higher production estimates in these countries are not sufficient to compensate for the significant decline in France and other countries.

EU rapeseed deliveries in the 2024/25 marketing year will be significantly lower than recently expected.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

Tags: Romania, EU, France, rapeseed, Germany, crop forecast, Czech Republic