Early Look at 2024/25 South American Crop Production

Farmers in South America will start planting some of their 2024/25 crops before the end of August, so it is time to start estimating the potential 2024/25 soybean and corn production in South America.

There are discrepancies between the USDA’s estimates for the 2023/24 production and local estimates including those from Conab, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, and myself, but for the purpose of this exercise, I am using the 2023/24 current estimates from the USDA. These estimates for the 2024/25 growing season are preliminary of course and they will likely change as the planting season progresses.

Brazil

• • Brazil is currently in the middle of their annual dry season, but this year, the dry season has been hotter and dryer-than-normal. There is no rain in the forecast for central Brazil until maybe later in August. Southern Brazil (Parana and Rio Grande do Sul) is receiving some scattered showers.

• • Brazil soybean acreage of 46.8 million hectares (115.5 million acres), which is up 1.0 million hectares or 2.1%. Brazil soybean production of 165.0 million tons, which is up 12 million tons or 7.8%.

• • First corn crop acreage of 3.75 million hectares (9.26 million acres), which is down 250,000 hectares or 6%. First corn crop production of 23.0 million tons which is down 2%.

• • Safrinha corn acreage of 15.87 million hectares (39.19 million acres), which is down 2%. Safrinha corn production of 100.0 million tons, which is up 10%.

• • Brazil corn production of 125.0 million tons, which is up 3.0 million tons or 2.5%.

Argentina

• • Topsoil is dry especially north, west, and south. Subsoil moisture level is better especially in east-central Argentina. The forecast is a mixed bag with only limited rainfall in the forecast for eastern Argentina.

• • Argentina soybean acreage of 17.0 million hectares (41.9 million acres), which is up 500,000 hectares or 3%. Soybean production of 52.0 million tons, which is up 2.5 million tons or 5%.

• • Argentina corn acreage of 6.5 million hectares (16.0 million acres), which is down 500.000 hectares or 7.1%. Argentina corn production of 50.0 million tons, which is down 2.0 million or 4%.

Paraguay

• • Soils in Paraguay are generally dry and the forecast is only calling for limited shower activity.

• • Paraguay soybean acreage of 3.70 million hectares (9.1 million acres), which is up 140,000 hectares or 3.9%. Paraguay soybean production of 10.7 million tons, which is up 0.2 million or 1.9%.

• • Paraguay corn acreage of 0.9 million hectares(2.2 million acres), which is up 100,000 hectares or 12.5%. Paraguay corn production of 5.2 million tons, which is up 0.4 million or 8.3%.

South American Projected 2024/25 Crop Production

South American soybean production to increase 14.7 million tons. South American corn production to increase 1.1 million tons. These estimates are based on the USDA’s July WASDE numbers.

As I mentioned earlier, since there are discrepancies between the various estimates for the 2023/24 crop production in South America, I am using the USDA’s estimates for the 2023/24 crop production, which are some of the highest estimates. That is why some of the 2024/25 estimates “don’t seem to add up.” It is because I am using the higher estimates from the USDA. I hesitated to use the USDA numbers, but you must start someplace.

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Tags: estimates, corn, USDA, planting, Brazil, soybeans, Production, South America, acreage, Argentina, Paraguay