Dry weather worsens EU rapeseed and sunflower crop outlook – Strategie Grains

Consultancy Strategie Grains sharply cut its monthly forecast for the next EU rapeseed crop on Friday, citing dry weather in parts of the bloc, although it still expects a recovery from last year’s rain-hit output.

The company forecasts the EU rapeseed crop in 2025/26 to be 18.6 million tonnes, below the 19.0 million tonne forecast made at the end of April but up almost 11% from the 2024/25 crop.

“Rapeseed production in 2025/26 has been sharply revised downwards in the EU, where dry conditions prevail in some countries,” Strategie Grains said in its monthly report summary.

Northern Europe, including major rapeseed producers France, Germany and Poland, have seen very little rainfall this spring, raising concerns that some crops will suffer at critical stages that determine yields.

According to Strategie Grains, the worsening EU crop outlook could contribute to continued global supply shortages, as well as reduced supplies in Canada.

The consultancy added that a surge in shipments to China ahead of the outcome of China’s anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola (a type of rapeseed) and the disruption of the next crop’s planting in Canada due to drought have heightened supply concerns and contributed to higher prices this month.

In other oilseeds, Strategie Grains also lowered its forecast for EU sunflower and soybean production in 2025/26.

The sunflower seed harvest is estimated at 10.4 million tonnes, up from 10.5 million tonnes last month, although this is still some 22% higher than the drought-hit EU 2024/25 crop.

Next year’s soybean harvest is forecast at 3.0 million tonnes, up from 3.1 million tonnes previously, and stable compared to last year.

Tags: rapeseed, crop forecast, EU, sunseed