Dry weather cuts Turkey’s wheat, barley output for 2025-26: USDA

An unexpected dry spell across large parts of Türkiye is set to suppress wheat and barley output in the 2025-26 season, prompting a significant rise in grain imports, according to the latest update from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Corn, however, is projected to show a stronger performance thanks to irrigation coverage.

Wheat production down, but quality remains high

FAS forecasts Turkey’s wheat production at 16.3 million tonnes, a decline of 15% from the previous season.

Despite the smaller crop, quality is reported to be high. As a result, more of the available wheat is expected to move into the milling sector.

 “In other words, most of the wheat produced will go for milling, meaning there will be less for animal feed,” the FAS said.

Of the total crop, about 3.5 million tonnes is expected to be durum wheat, used mainly in pasta production for both local consumption and export markets.

Lower output will drive wheat imports to nearly 7.3 million tonnes, more than double last year’s volume.

While elevated, the figure aligns with Turkey’s average import range over the past decade. Around two-thirds of these imports will be processed into flour and pasta for export, with the rest destined for domestic manufacturing of flour and various wheat-based products.

Imports would have been even higher if demand from Iraq, Turkey’s largest flour customer, were not slowing.

On the export side, Turkey’s wheat exports are projected to fall to 6 million tonnes, down 1.3 million tonnes year on year.

According to the FAS, this forecast assumes a slowdown in durum wheat exports, continued struggles to regain lost market share, and a slowdown in Iraq’s demand for Turkish flour.

Barley production is also set to contract sharply. Output is estimated at 5.1 million tonnes, almost 2 million tonnes below last year’s level.

The shortfall will push barley imports to about 1.7 million tonnes to satisfy domestic feed demand, particularly from livestock producers.

In contrast to wheat and barley, corn (maize) production is projected to grow. Production is forecast to rise by 12% to approximately 7.9 million tonnes, supported by widespread irrigation that protects the crop from the dry weather affecting other cereals.

With domestic supplies improving, corn imports are expected to fall to 3.3 million tonnes, down roughly 2.4 million tonnes from the previous year.

Tags: Production, wheat, crop, imports, Türkiye, milling, corn, grain, barley