The nation still has large carryover stocks of wheat and barley and the government has taken steps to drawdown these surpluses, the FAS said.
Drier weather during the growing season is expected to contract Turkey’s wheat, barley and corn production in 2024-25, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
“In addition, to conserve water in increasingly dry growing conditions, the government recently instituted a program to incentivize farmers to grow crops that are less water intensive in regions where water is in short supply,” the FAS said.
Wheat production is estimated at 19 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from the 2023-24 season.
While wheat imports were down 40% in the first half of the year, the FAS said it is expected to pick up in the second half and reach 5.5 million tonnes. The decrease was attributed to the government’s decision to suspend the inward processing regime for wheat from late June through mid-October.
Exports are expected to drop 2.95 million tonnes to 7 million tonnes due to the temporary suspension of the IPR, domestic purchase requirements and the difficulties for Turkish flour exporters to recover lost market share in key markets in Africa and the Middle East, the FAS said.
Barley production is estimated at 7 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes. Corn production also is expected to be lower by 1.3 million tonnes to 7.1 million tonnes.
Corn imports are estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, assuming the government doesn’t reinstitute a tariff rate quota (TRQ). In October 2024, in order to stabilize corn prices, the Turkish government introduced a 1 million tonne TRQ with an in-quota duty of 5%, effective through the end of 2024, the FAS said.
The out-of-quota duty was 130%. With the end of the TRQ, the duty on all corn imports has reverted to the MFN rate of 130%.
