Despite the decline in global corn prices, they continue to grow in Ukraine

Speculative growth of wheat prices led to higher stock prices for corn, but yesterday they declined amid profit-taking by traders and on the data on the acceleration of sowing in the United States.

Yesterday on the Chicago stock exchange, the July corn futures fell 0.5% to 180.3 $/t (-2.2% for the week, +1.8% for the month), and the December – by 0.4% to 190 $/t (-1.9% for the week, +2.3% for the month).

According to NASS, as of may 19, corn in the United States planted 70% of the planned area (50% a week ago, 76% last year, 71% on average for 5 years), and warm weather with periodic rainfall in the next 8-10 days will accelerate sowing.

In Ukraine, as of May 17, 3.65 million hectares or 91% of the planned area was planted with corn, but farmers can increase the planting area amid rapid price growth. Dry, but not hot weather will allow to complete the sowing in the optimal time, but the crops are experiencing a moisture deficit, and the rains are expected only in late May.

Purchase price of corn in Ukraine in the ports of the black sea during the week rose by another 5-8 $/t to 180-183 $/t or 8200-8300 UAH/t after the price of feed wheat added another 10-12 $/t and reached 185-188 $/t or 8300-8400 UAH/t amid strong export demand.

In May, Ukraine exported 2.06 mln tonnes of corn, which is significantly higher than the 1.66 mln tonnes shipped in May 1-20, 2023, and the total exports in the season reached 24.96 mln tonnes (26.36 mln tonnes on the same date last year).

According to the Conab agency, in Brazil, the first-crop corn was harvested on 72.4% of the area (77.2% last year), and the second-crop corn – on 0.4% of the area (0.2% last year).

In Argentina, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), as of May 15, corn was threshed on 25.4% of the area (33.7% on average over 5 years), and dry weather will speed up the harvest in the coming weeks.

China is actively buying corn, and in January-April 2024 increased its imports compared to the same period in 2023 by 6.5% to 9.1 mln tonnes.

The decline in oil prices, acceleration of corn harvesting in South America and planting in the US and Ukraine may lead to lower prices for the grain in the near future. However, in Ukraine, prices will remain high amid limited supply, and will decline in mid-July, when traders start buying new crop rapeseed and barley.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, Brazil, prices, USA, Argentina