Demand for wheat is growing in Africa and the world’s top exporters of the crop are ready to compete

Global wheat trade is set to fall 10 percent in 2024-25, but there is one region of the world where it continues to grow. Imports fell to China, Turkey, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, but rose seven percent to sub-Saharan Africa.

Agricultural analyst Sean Pratt writes about Canada’s interests in the African wheat market in an article published on the Canadian agricultural portal The Western Producer. The expert discussed the results of the recent USDA report with Lisa Nemeth, director of market support and training at Cereals Canada (a national non-profit industry association representing the Canadian grain value chain).

“The African region is seeing rising wheat consumption with limited production, leading to significant imports in Nigeria, Kenya, Sudan, South Africa, Ethiopia and Tanzania. The region purchased 30 million tonnes in 2024-25 and is expected to buy the same amount in 2025-26, up from 22 million tonnes a decade ago. The increase in demand is driven by population and economic growth in the region. The European Union and Russia are the main suppliers of wheat to sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for about 70 per cent of total imports. But Canada and the United States are also players in the region. “While markets are largely price sensitive, consumers are increasingly choosing high-quality wheat,” the USDA report said.

Lisa Nemeth, director of market support and training at Cereals Canada, noted that sub-Saharan Africa is an important target market for Canada. “The Canadian portion may not seem like a big deal, but there’s a lot going on there right now and it’s a market with a lot of potential, so it’s definitely something we’re keeping an eye on,” she said, citing Nigeria as an example. Canada saw a big potential in this market back in 2011, when there was almost no Canadian wheat coming into the country. Through ongoing engagement and relationship building, Canada has been able to demonstrate the quality of its wheat to millers operating in the country.

Over the past five years, Canada has shipped an average of 800,000 tonnes of wheat and durum (hard wheat) annually to Nigeria. Mills use durum to blend with low-protein wheat. “Market development in Nigeria has certainly been successful,” Nemeth said.

Nigeria is the region’s largest buyer and is projected to become the world’s 11th-largest wheat importer in 2025–26, with shipments of 6.4 million tonnes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“Nigeria has a large milling industry that blends cheaper wheat from the EU and Black Sea regions with higher-quality wheat from Canada and the U.S. to produce flour to meet growing consumer demand for bread, cakes and cookies,” the USDA said in a report.

Nemeth noted that Ghana is the second-largest buyer of Canadian wheat in the region. One miller in the country has moved into pasta production and is now looking to learn more about Canadian wheat.Cereals Canada partners with multinational millers in Ghana that help supply Canadian wheat to other smaller African countries such as Mozambique, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

The company has also developed “an excellent relationship” with the African School of Milling in Kenya, where Cereals Canada technical staff invite millers from the region to demonstrate the quality benefits of Canadian wheat. In July, Cereals Canada is bringing seven African millers to Winnipeg to learn about Canadian wheat, then tour a Canadian farm, primary elevator, and port facility in Hamilton.

Nemeth noted that because of the distance between Canada and Africa, Cereals Canada relies more on technology tools like webinars, customer newsletters, and new crop presentations to keep African customers informed about what’s happening in Canada.

A USDA report says Kenya is the second-largest importer of wheat in sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria, projected to buy 2.6 million tonnes of the crop in 2025-26. Consumption there is growing due to rising disposable income among young people and a shift toward more Western-style diets.

Sudan is also projected to import 2.6 million tons of wheat and flour, despite the ongoing conflict. The country has a flour milling industry that historically processed more than 2.5 million tons of wheat per year, but the conflict has caused a sharp decline in milling. As a result, the country is importing less grain and more flour.

Maize is a staple food in South Africa, but wheat consumption is growing. The country is forecast to import two million tonnes in 2025-26, some of which will be milled into flour that will then be exported to the interior of the continent.

Ethiopia is forecast to import 1.4 million tonnes to meet domestic demand, driven by the country’s growing urban population.

“Durum wheat is often favoured in the milling sector to meet consumer preferences for bread and pasta,” the USDA report said.

Tanzania’s imports have increased over the past decade, driven by strong population growth and an improving economy. The country is expected to import 1.3 million tonnes in 2025-26 to meet “growing” consumer demand for wheat-based products and from the country’s expanding hotel and tourism industry. The country mainly imports milling wheat from Russia.

Canada is expected to export 26.2 million tonnes of wheat in 2025, making it the world’s second-largest wheat exporter and the largest exporter of high-quality, high-protein wheat.

These opportunities are especially relevant for Ukraine, which has traditionally focused on North Africa. A new study by UkrAgroConsult — “Conceptual trends and prospects of agricultural exports to Sub-Saharan Africa” — presents practical analytics and recommendations for Ukrainian companies considering this market. The document reveals the demand for wheat, corn, and processed products, outlines logistical challenges, access barriers, and the competitive environment. Experts urge Ukrainian exporters not to delay and seize the chance to gain a foothold in a promising market.

Tags: Zimbabwe, Ghana, Mozambique, Sudan, Africa, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya