Demand for old crop corn in Ukraine remains high

The sharp speculative rise in wheat prices is supporting old-crop corn prices, which have resumed growth amid limited supplies.

Export purchase prices for corn increased by $5-6/t per week to $225-232/t or UAH 10,700-10,900/t, but with a limited delivery period only until the end of July.

The increase in feed wheat prices to $220-223/t significantly supported forward corn prices, which rose to $206-210/t for delivery in October.

Turkey’s introduction of a quota for duty-free imports of 500,000 tons of corn in July is also boosting demand, but it should be noted that in August the country begins to harvest its own crop, and the duty will again reach 130%.

Forecasted precipitation and moderate temperatures in Ukraine in the coming weeks will improve the condition of corn crops and reduce concerns about a reduction in yield due to dry conditions in early July.

November corn futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris are trading at €199/t or $234/t (-3.1% month-on-month), while December futures in Chicago fell 2.6% month-on-month to $164.5/t.

Prices on world exchanges remain under pressure from expectations of increased corn supply from Brazil in August.

In its July report, the Basel-based agency Conab raised its corn harvest forecast by 3.72% to 131.9 million tons (USDA estimates it at 132 million tons), including first-crop corn to 24.9 million tons, second-crop corn to 104.5 million tons, and third-crop corn to 2.5 million tons. This will be 14.3% higher than the MY 2023/24.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices