Corn shortage triggers sharp rise in wheat demand in China

Feed demand for wheat in China could exceed the USDA’s current forecast of 33 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season as corn supplies remain tight and prices continue to rise, according to the latest China Agriculture Update from Sitonia Consulting.

Wheat and corn prices in key regions such as Henan Province have almost equalled each other, making wheat a more attractive alternative in feed rations, according to the company.

China’s corn imports have fallen significantly, to below 500,000 tonnes per month for almost a year, compared to an average of around 1.9 million tonnes previously. Against this backdrop, wheat use in feed is growing rapidly, with the price difference between the two crops now down to less than $13.95 per tonne.

“Given the limited supply of corn and the current price environment, the USDA forecast for feed use of wheat looks understated and will likely be revised upwards,” analysts at Sitonia note.

In the 2023/24 season, the volume of wheat used for feed purposes in China reached 37 million tons – then this was due to damaged crops. However, this year the growth is no longer due to grain quality, but exclusively to the market situation.

Tags: China, corn, wheat