Corn production in Mexico to increase to 25 mln tons in MY 2025/26

Mexico’s corn production will increase to 25 million tons in the MY 2025/26, while wheat production will decline slightly, the USDA attaché in Mexico City said. He said corn production will increase by 1.8 million tons compared to the MY 2024/25, while imports will remain stable at 25 million tons. The area harvested for corn will increase by 100,000 hectares to 6.6 million hectares, and yields will increase from 3.6 to 3.79 tons per hectare. The increase is due to above-average rainfall that replenished reservoirs in the state of Sinaloa ahead of the fall-winter cycle, although the spring-summer corn crop suffered from a rain deficit and soil moisture is estimated to be sufficient.

Despite the projected increase in corn harvest, imports will not decrease due to strong demand from the feed sector. In the MY 2025/26, corn use for feed and other needs will increase to 28.3 million tons from 26.9 million the previous year, which will raise total consumption to 49.8 million tons. The total corn distribution in Mexico will increase by almost 1.78 million tons to 55.76 million, and the balance at the end of the season will reach 5.93 million tons compared to 5.76 million in the MY 2024/25.

As for wheat, its production will fall to 1.75 million tons from 2.65 million last year due to drought, low profitability and high farmer debt. Wheat harvested area will decrease to 320,000 hectares from 468,000, and yields will decrease from 5.66 to 5.47 tons per hectare. In this regard, dependence on wheat imports will increase to 6.5 million tons from 5.53 million.

The USDA attaché estimated total wheat stocks in Mexico at 9.07 million tons, compared to 8.95 million last year, and consumption will increase by 100,000 tons to 8.1 million. End-of-season surpluses are forecast at 867,000 tons, compared to 817,000 in 2024/25.

These forecasts reflect a mixed picture for the Mexican grain sector: corn growth due to improved weather conditions in key regions, while drought continues to weigh on wheat. Mexico, as one of the largest importers of grain, especially from the United States, remains vulnerable to climatic factors and market trends.

Tags: corn, wheat, crop forecast, Mexico