Corn prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from global markets
Export prices for corn in Ukraine remain at the level of 9250-9350 UAH/t or 197-203 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, and no significant correction is expected in the coming months, given the approaching harvest of a record harvest in the USA and low world prices.
The Brazilian agency CONAB has increased its forecast for corn production in Brazil in the MY 2024/25 by 2.67 million tons to 139.67 million tons, significantly exceeding the USDA’s August estimate of 132 million tons. Today, the USDA will release its September World Corn Balance Report, in which it will adjust the harvest in Brazil and again increase stocks for the MY 2025/26.
December corn futures in Chicago have been trading at $165/t since early September, influenced by active export sales for the new season.
Total corn sales for the 2025/26 have already reached the second highest figure in the entire history of observations – 22.6 million tons with an export forecast of 68 million tons (compared to 72 million tons in the 2024/25).
Recent tenders indicate that asking prices remain low, and buyers are choosing cheap corn from South America.
According to market operators, the South Korean company Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased 63,000 tons of South American feed corn from the operator Agrex at an international tender on September 11 at a price of $232.1/ton C&F with delivery by January 5, 2026.
November corn futures on the Paris exchange have fallen by 1.4% since the beginning of September to €185.5/t or $217.5/t, which continues to put pressure on prices in Ukraine.
In September, a revision is expected to increase quotas for imports of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU, including corn, to 1 million tons, but with the forecast of exports from Ukraine in 2025/26 MY at 25-26 million tons, the question of where to sell expensive Ukrainian corn remains open.
At the same time, a temporary increase in export prices for corn in Ukraine is possible in September due to a delayed harvest, as was the case with barley in July, but it will concern limited volumes and rapid deliveries, so farmers will need to closely monitor market trends.
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